The Daily Brief for October 15, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led uptick. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.50% year over year on 2026-10-15 — +0.063pp on the day, +0.047pp on the week, +0.108pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 4.47% annualized over three months and 3.04% over one. Changes are like for like on method v1.5; the published readings moved +0.254pp on the month across the September 28, 2026 switch from v1.4. Official CPI 3.7% (September 2026, released 2026-10-14); gap −0.20pp. About 40% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.
Nowflation Realtime stands at 3.19% year-on-year as of 2026-10-15, up 0.07pp on the day and up 0.05pp on the week. Fuel contributed 0.059pp to the daily move, with transportation services adding 0.02pp, while food home subtracted 0.029pp and household furnishings subtracted 0.019pp. The Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.5% year-on-year, up 0.063pp on the day and up 0.047pp on the week, like for like, against the official September print of 3.7% year-on-year, a gap of -0.2pp. For the 2026-10 release, the Nowflation Forecast stands at 3.9% (3.862% unrounded), with no Street consensus available for comparison. The in-house model reads 3.983%. Forward pump prices point to 4.400 dollars in two weeks, up 6.6 cents from the current 4.334 dollars.
| Forecaster | Headline CPI YoY call |
|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble; the call as it stood that day, locked into a receipt the evening before the release) | 3.86% |
| Nowflation model (in-house) | 3.98% |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 3.77% |
| Prior print | 3.7% |
the Gauge runs −0.20pp versus the September 2026 print of 3.7% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is our call for what the BLS will print, locked into a receipt the evening before the release and graded after it (October 2026 preview and grading).
The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the ensemble call for the next CPI release, the current call until it is locked into a receipt the evening before the release, then graded after it; the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire headline and paragraph are written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record). Before a paragraph is stored, every number in it is checked against those figures (since September 15, 2026) and its wording against the numbers (since October 2, 2026); a deterministic template replaces it when the API is unavailable or a check fails. Archived paragraphs are shown as written, including those stored before the current checks. The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.
| Day | Gauge YoY | On the day | Gap vs the print |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 3.44% | −0.003pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-10-18 | 3.45% | −0.010pp | −0.25pp |
| 2026-10-17 | 3.46% | −0.020pp | −0.24pp |
| 2026-10-16 | 3.48% | −0.024pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-10-15 | 3.50% | +0.063pp | −0.20pp |
| 2026-10-14 | 3.44% | +0.005pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-10-13 | 3.43% | −0.014pp | +0.03pp |
| 2026-10-12 | 3.45% | −0.004pp | +0.05pp |
| 2026-10-11 | 3.45% | −0.008pp | +0.05pp |
| 2026-10-10 | 3.46% | −0.005pp | +0.06pp |
| 2026-10-09 | 3.46% | +0.010pp | +0.06pp |
| 2026-10-08 | 3.45% | −0.011pp | +0.05pp |
| 2026-10-07 | 3.46% | −0.028pp | +0.06pp |
| 2026-10-06 | 3.49% | +0.003pp | +0.09pp |
| 2026-10-05 | 3.49% | −0.004pp | +0.09pp |
| 2026-10-04 | 3.49% | −0.011pp | +0.09pp |
| 2026-10-03 | 3.50% | −0.017pp | +0.10pp |
| 2026-10-02 | 3.52% | −0.017pp | +0.12pp |
| 2026-10-01 | 3.54% | +0.032pp | +0.14pp |
| 2026-09-30 | 3.51% | −0.022pp | +0.11pp |
| 2026-09-29 | 3.53% | −0.022pp | +0.13pp |
| 2026-09-28 | 3.55% | +0.002pp | +0.15pp (method v1.5 from this day, v1.4 before it; the day change is like for like, the published reading moved +0.181pp) |
| 2026-09-27 | 3.37% | −0.007pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-26 | 3.38% | −0.003pp | −0.02pp |
| 2026-09-25 | 3.38% | +0.008pp | −0.02pp |
| 2026-09-24 | 3.37% | +0.002pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-23 | 3.37% | −0.001pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-22 | 3.37% | −0.002pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-21 | 3.37% | +0.001pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-20 | 3.37% | +0.001pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-19 | 3.37% | +0.006pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-18 | 3.36% | +0.027pp | −0.04pp |
| 2026-09-17 | 3.34% | +0.084pp | −0.06pp |
| 2026-09-16 | 3.25% | +0.007pp | −0.15pp |
| 2026-09-15 | 3.25% | +0.010pp | −0.15pp |
| 2026-09-14 | 3.24% | +0.003pp | −0.16pp |
| 2026-09-13 | 3.23% | +0.003pp | −0.17pp |
| 2026-09-12 | 3.23% | −0.007pp | −0.17pp |
| 2026-09-11 | 3.24% | −0.011pp | −0.16pp |
| 2026-09-10 | 3.25% | +0.033pp | −0.15pp |
| 2026-09-09 | 3.22% | +0.064pp | −0.18pp |
| 2026-09-08 | 3.15% | +0.001pp | −0.25pp |
| 2026-09-07 | 3.15% | −0.023pp | −0.25pp |
| 2026-09-06 | 3.17% | +0.001pp | −0.23pp |
| 2026-09-05 | 3.17% | −0.001pp | −0.23pp |
| 2026-09-04 | 3.17% | +0.003pp | −0.23pp |
| 2026-09-03 | 3.17% | −0.007pp | −0.23pp |
| 2026-09-02 | 3.18% | +0.022pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-09-01 | 3.16% | +0.013pp | −0.24pp |
| 2026-08-31 | 3.14% | +0.002pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-08-30 | 3.14% | −0.003pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-08-29 | 3.14% | −0.007pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-08-28 | 3.15% | −0.008pp | −0.25pp |
| 2026-08-27 | 3.16% | −0.022pp | −0.24pp |
| 2026-08-26 | 3.18% | +0.004pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-25 | 3.18% | −0.002pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-24 | 3.18% | 0.000pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-23 | 3.18% | −0.003pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-22 | 3.18% | −0.006pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.19% | +0.004pp | −0.21pp |