Truflation's US inflation index reads 3.08% as of 2026-10-17 (read from the public TRUF.NETWORK stream — data provider 0x4710a8d8f0d845da110086812a32de6d90d7ff5c, stream st1e321de22ece39a258bc2588dd2871, 6,134 daily values since 2010-01-01); the Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.45% (2026-10-18); the latest official CPI-U print is 3.7% for September 2026, released 2026-10-14. Gaps to the print: Truflation -0.62pp, Nowflation CPI Gauge -0.25pp; the CPI Gauge reads +0.37pp above Truflation. Next print 2026-11-10; the Nowflation Forecast for the October 2026 print is 3.86%, the current call until it is locked the evening before the release.
The Nowflation CPI Gauge's readings are its stored daily history: recomputed once when method v1.4 was adopted (not the values shown before that recomputation) and kept as published since, with method v1.5 from September 28, 2026 (not recomputed); Truflation's are its published series as it stands today.
| Window | Truflation | Nowflation CPI Gauge |
|---|---|---|
| since Jan 2019 (92 prints) | 1.13 / +0.07 / 1.56 / 0.907 | 0.30 / +0.10 / 0.36 / 0.986 |
| since Jul 2023 (38 prints) | 0.92 / -0.90 / 0.55 / 0.415 | 0.20 / -0.04 / 0.25 / 0.848 |
| last 12 prints (12 prints) | 1.27 / -1.27 / 0.61 / 0.469 | 0.21 / -0.05 / 0.24 / 0.908 |
Closest to the print: Nowflation CPI Gauge since January 2019 (Nowflation CPI Gauge 0.30pp, the previous print (naive benchmark) 0.32pp, Truflation 1.13pp); Nowflation CPI Gauge since July 2023 (Nowflation CPI Gauge 0.20pp, the previous print (naive benchmark) 0.23pp, Truflation 0.92pp); Nowflation CPI Gauge over the last 12 prints (Nowflation CPI Gauge 0.21pp, the previous print (naive benchmark) 0.30pp, Truflation 1.27pp). Both real-time gauges have read below the print since July 2023 — Truflation by 0.90pp on average, the Gauge by 0.04pp. Lead test (correlation of each series' monthly average with official CPI YoY k months later): Truflation: k = 1 (r 0.955) since 2019, k = 0 (r 0.382) since July 2023; Nowflation CPI Gauge: k = 0 (r 0.991) since 2019, k = 0 (r 0.871) since July 2023. Truflation's own estimate is a lead of about 45 days (r 0.83 in the current regime, February 2026).
| Category | Truflation (2026 weights) | BLS CPI-U | Nowflation CPI Gauge (2026-07-31) | Δ Truflation − BLS | Δ Nowflation − BLS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & non-alcoholic beverages | 15.2 / +2.2% / +0.34pp | 13.7 / +3.0% / +0.41pp | 13.7 / +3.0% / +0.41pp | -0.07pp | -0.00pp |
| Housing | 23.1 / -4.0% / -0.93pp | 34 / +3.2% / +1.08pp | 34 / +2.2% / +0.74pp | -2.01pp | -0.34pp |
| Transportation | 19.8 / +3.9% / +0.77pp | 9.5 / +7.6% / +0.72pp | 9.5 / +10.8% / +1.03pp | +0.05pp | +0.31pp |
| Utilities | 6 / +7.6% / +0.45pp | 3.3 / +4.2% / +0.14pp | 3.3 / +3.8% / +0.12pp | +0.32pp | -0.01pp |
| Health | 8.8 / +10.1% / +0.89pp | 8.4 / +1.7% / +0.14pp | 8.4 / +2.0% / +0.17pp | +0.74pp | +0.03pp |
| Household durables & daily-use items | 7.1 / +4.0% / +0.28pp | — | — | — | — |
| Alcohol & tobacco | 1.8 / +3.3% / +0.06pp | — | — | — | — |
| Clothing & footwear | 3.8 / +3.9% / +0.15pp | 2.4 / +3.9% / +0.09pp | 2.4 / +3.9% / +0.09pp | +0.06pp | 0.00pp |
| Communications | 3.3 / -1.6% / -0.05pp | — | — | — | — |
| Education | 2.3 / +7.8% / +0.18pp | 5.8 / +0.6% / +0.03pp | 5.8 / -0.1% / -0.00pp | +0.15pp | -0.04pp |
| Recreation & culture | 5.5 / +2.0% / +0.11pp | 5.1 / +2.6% / +0.13pp | 5.1 / +2.8% / +0.14pp | -0.02pp | +0.01pp |
| Other | 3.4 / +1.0% / +0.03pp | — / +4.3% / — | 0.9 / +2.6% / +0.02pp | — | — |
| Headline | 2.0% published (weighted sum of the rows 2.28%) | 3.4% (mapped rows +2.75pp over 82.3% of the basket) | 3.29% | -1.12pp | -0.10pp |
Housing is most of the difference: in July 2026 Truflation had housing at -4.0% on a 23.1% weight (a cost-of-ownership index moves with home prices and mortgage rates), the BLS shelter index was +3.2% on a 34% weight (owners' equivalent rent is a smoothed rent survey), and the Nowflation CPI Gauge's all-tenant rent index (new-lease rents averaged over every lease still in force) read +2.2% on the full shelter weight — -2.01pp and -0.34pp against the print respectively. Health pulls the other way: Truflation's +10.1% (insurance premiums inside it) contributes +0.89pp against +0.14pp for the BLS medical-care index, which prices health insurance indirectly. Truflation's July headline is the month's average of its daily index (1.96% from the stream); the weighted sum of its one-decimal category YoYs is 2.28%, the difference being rounding and timing. The BLS column covers 82.3% of the CPI basket with a clean subindex match; the unmapped 17.7% contributes +0.65pp.
Truflation — A cost-of-living index on a household-spending basket, published daily. Twelve categories weighted by prior-year household spending — credit-card transaction data, Census data and household-expenditure data from Global Demographics and NielsenIQ, validated against Truflation’s own feeds — against the 24-month-old expenditure survey behind the CPI weights. The 2026 weights put housing at 23.1% of the basket; shelter is about 34% of the BLS CPI-U. Rented dwellings (8.1% of the basket): five sources equally weighted — Numbeo, Penn State ACY, Zillow, Redfin and Apartment List. Owned dwellings (13.7%): a cost-of-ownership calculation — property values, new-mortgage rates from Freddie Mac blended into the existing mortgage stock, property taxes, maintenance and insurance — rather than the BLS owners’-equivalent-rent imputation. Health (8.8%) includes health-insurance premiums at a 6.2% weight; transportation (19.8%) carries vehicle insurance at 3.2%. Monthly sources are carried forward daily; the index is based 2010-01-01 = 100 and YoY is the index against its value 365 days earlier. New data posts at 23:00 UTC with a 24-hour hold. Truflation’s own lead estimate: its US index leads the BLS print by about 45 days, with a correlation of 0.83 in the current regime (Truflation, “Truflation as a Leading Indicator of the Official US Inflation”, February 2026 — https://truflation.com/blog/truflation-leading-indicator-of-us-cpi).
Nowflation — What would the CPI print if its inputs were read today? The CPI basket and BLS weights with live inputs where they lead, graded against the print. 21 components on the BLS CPI-U relative-importance weights (shelter about a third of the basket), each a publication-dated daily index built from its BLS subindex, with a live input spliced on where one has a better record: the all-tenant rent model (new-lease rents from Zillow ZORI and Apartment List, rolled over at the pace of the CPI's rent panel) on both the rent and owners'-equivalent weights, AAA's daily pump price for motor fuel, Manheim's used-vehicle value index, and Kelley Blue Book's average transaction price for new vehicles; from method v1.5 a monthly source steps aside for the official subindex while the BLS has published a newer month. A component without a live input rides its latest official subindex between prints. Year over year is taken against each component's own year-ago level (for a held component, the same month's print a year earlier), not against the index value 365 days before. The CPI Gauge is the CPI-comparable reading that feeds the Nowflation Forecast; Nowflation Realtime is the site's headline measurement of prices today. Every reading is stored with the date it was pulled, the daily history is dated on the publication calendar (method v1.5 since 2026-09-28, v1.4 before), and the next-print forecast is pre-registered and graded on /scoreboard.
Method: Same method for all rows: the reading dated the day before each BLS release (Truflation: the stream value stamped that day; Nowflation: the engine’s daily headline for that day; naive: the previous print, the last BLS YoY anyone held on print eve) against the release’s headline YoY on the NSA index at one decimal, exactly as BLS quotes it. Reference month = the month before the release month; one release per calendar month (the seasonal-factor revision date is not a print). mean_gap is signed (reading − print), sd_gap its sample standard deviation, mae the mean absolute gap, corr the Pearson r of readings against prints; beats_naive counts the prints where the reading was closer to the print than the previous print was (ties to the naive), dir_hit the share of moved prints where the reading sat on the side the print moved to. Lead test: each series’ calendar-month average (complete months only) against official YoY k months later. The CPI Gauge’s daily history is the engine’s publication-dated series (method v1.4 through the day before 2026-09-28, v1.5 from it, the level linked at the switch), not frozen daily vintages; Truflation’s is the stream as read today. Neither is a pre-registered forecast of the print — the graded receipts for that live on /scoreboard. Sources: Truflation US Inflation Index, Truflation US monthly inflation report — July 2026, Truflation 2026 CPI weights, Truflation methodology, TRUF.NETWORK public stream (provider 0x4710a8d8…, stream st1e321de22ece39a258bc2588dd2871); BLS CPI-U all items NSA via FRED (CPIAUCNS) with release dates from the BLS calendar; the Nowflation engine (see methodology and The Gauge, Exposed). Updated every morning with the engine.
Zillow data: Data Provided by Zillow Group.