March 2026 CPI printed 3.3% — every forecaster graded

The March 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 3.3% year over year on April 10, 2026 (prior 2.4%, Street consensus 3.3%, surprise 0.00pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 2.6% (consensus 2.7%, prior 2.5%; closest Cleveland Fed). Headline MoM 0.9% vs 0.9% expected.

Headline CPI YoY: printed 3.3%

ForecasterCallPrintedMiss
Cleveland Fed3.25%3.3%−0.048pp
Street consensus (closest)3.3%3.3%0.000pp

Core CPI YoY: printed 2.6%

ForecasterCallPrintedMiss
Cleveland Fed (closest)2.60%2.6%−0.004pp
Street consensus2.7%2.6%+0.100pp

Headline CPI MoM: printed 0.9%

ForecasterCallPrintedMiss
Cleveland Fed0.84%0.9%−0.056pp
Street consensus (closest)0.9%0.9%0.000pp

Core CPI MoM: printed 0.2%

ForecasterCallPrintedMiss
Cleveland Fed (closest)0.20%0.2%+0.004pp
Street consensus0.3%0.2%+0.100pp

no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.

The Gauge stepping

The Gauge read 3.63% on the eve of the print and 3.67% the day after (+0.040pp), its gap to the printed number moving from +0.33pp to +0.37pp; the CPI Tracker 3.66% → 3.65%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.

Method

Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.

Scoreboard · March 2026 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.