The March 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 3.3% year over year on April 10, 2026 (prior 2.4%, Street consensus 3.3%, surprise 0.00pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 2.6% (consensus 2.7%, prior 2.5%; closest Cleveland Fed). Headline MoM 0.9% vs 0.9% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 3.25% | 3.3% | −0.048pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.3% | 3.3% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 2.60% | 2.6% | −0.004pp |
| Street consensus | 2.7% | 2.6% | +0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.84% | 0.9% | −0.056pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.20% | 0.2% | +0.004pp |
| Street consensus | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.100pp |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 3.63% on the eve of the print and 3.67% the day after (+0.040pp), its gap to the printed number moving from +0.33pp to +0.37pp; the CPI Tracker 3.66% → 3.65%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · March 2026 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.