A classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 — 16-lb turkey, potatoes, sweet potatoes, rolls, butter, milk, eggs, flour, sugar and coffee — costs $75.32 at September 2026 shelf prices ($7.53 a head), +1.0% vs September 2025 and +49.0% vs September 2019 ($50.55). Last Thanksgiving (November 2026) the same basket cost $69.87; in November 2019 it was $47.01. Projection for Thanksgiving 2026 (the November 2026 print): $70.88 — actual $75.32 (-5.9% error). The official food-at-home CPI (not seasonally adjusted) is +1.8% year over year for September 2026.
| Item | Quantity | Price | Line | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey, whole frozen | 16 lb | $2.44/lb | $39.11 | +8.4% |
| Potatoes, white | 5 lb | $0.989/lb | $4.95 | -2.5% |
| Sweet potatoes * | 3 lb | $0.989/lb | $2.97 | -2.5% |
| Dinner rolls (12) * | 1 lb | $1.83/lb | $1.83 | -2.0% |
| Butter, stick | 1 lb | $3.96/lb | $3.96 | -17.3% |
| Milk, whole | 1 gal | $4.11/gal | $4.11 | -0.6% |
| Eggs, grade A large | 1 doz | $2.27/doz | $2.27 | -34.9% |
| Flour, all-purpose | 5 lb | $0.545/lb | $2.73 | -3.2% |
| Sugar, white | 4 lb | $1.02/lb | $4.08 | -2.2% |
| Coffee, ground roast | 1 lb | $9.33/lb | $9.33 | +2.1% |
Biggest movers vs a year ago: turkey, whole frozen +8.4% (+$3.02), eggs, grade A large -34.9% (−$1.22), butter, stick -17.3% (−$0.83), coffee, ground roast +2.1% (+$0.19). Turkey: $2.44/lb; farm-gate turkeys $1.30/lb live weight in August 2026 (+22.3% YoY, USDA NASS). BLS average price for whole frozen turkey through Feb 2020, then the same-calendar-month 2017–19 level moved by the BLS CPI item index for other uncooked poultry including turkey (NSA), calibrated to the last 12 published months of the average-price series.
The monthly total runs from April 2018, with no total for December 2018–August 2019 (9 months, when the BLS published no price for ground roast coffee within two months).
Every line = BLS Average Price (US city average, published with each CPI) × quantity. Totals are computed only for months where every line has a price; a missing month (BLS skipped October 2025) falls back to the nearest published month within two. Projection = each item's October price × its average November/October seasonal ratio since 2018 (geometric mean), summed. Updated with each CPI/AP release. Quantities: 16-lb turkey, 5 lb white potatoes, 3 lb sweet potatoes (white-potato proxy), 12 rolls (≈1 lb white bread), 1 lb butter, 1 gal whole milk, 1 dozen eggs, 5 lb flour, 4 lb sugar, 1 lb coffee. Cranberries, stuffing and pie ingredients have no BLS average price and are left out. Context: American Farm Bureau Federation annual survey, classic dinner for 10. Different basket (adds stuffing, cranberries, pie mix and shells, whipping cream, peas, veggie tray) and a different method (volunteer shoppers, November feature prices) — context, not an input. AFBF survey totals: 2024 $58.08, 2025 $55.18. Updated with each CPI/AP release.