Nowflation CPI Gauge vs BLS CPI: 3.45% on Oct 18 vs 3.7% for September 2026, and Every US Inflation Measure on One Table

Gauge 3.45% vs official CPI 3.7% (2026-09). Component-level comparison, timing differences, and the two shelter methods, on one page.

Every measure, one table

• Core PCE index (the trend measure the Fed watches most closely; its 2% goal is on headline PCE): 130.5 (2026-08-01, +3.0% YoY)
• Cleveland Fed median CPI: 2.81% (2026-09-01, +0.37 pts vs a year ago)
• Cleveland Fed 16% trimmed-mean CPI: 3.53% (2026-09-01, +1.14 pts vs a year ago)
• Atlanta Fed core sticky CPI: 2.78% (2026-09-01, −0.55 pts vs a year ago)
• 5-year breakeven: 2.37% (2026-10-16, +0.08 pts vs a year ago)
• Michigan 1-year expectations: 4% (2026-08-01, −0.80 pts vs a year ago)

The matrix carries the daily Nowflation gauges, the official BLS/BEA prints, the underlying (trimmed, median, sticky) measures the Fed staff watches, the pipeline (PPI, import prices) and what markets and consumers expect — officials quoted as published.

Two machines, one question

The BLS Consumer Price Index and the Nowflation CPI Gauge both try to measure the same thing — the change in what urban consumers pay for a fixed basket — with different machinery. The CPI collects roughly 100,000 price quotes and 8,000 rent quotes a month, about two-thirds by data collectors visiting outlets, and publishes once a month about two weeks after the month ends; its weights come from the Consumer Expenditure Survey and are refreshed each year with spending data about two years old. The Gauge is built from 25 input series on a fixed schedule — the official subindex each of its 21 components holds between prints, and live market sources where they have a better record than the survey: new-lease rents averaged into an all-tenant index (turnover 0.045 a month over 48 months of leases), AAA pump prices, Manheim wholesale auctions and Cox transaction prices. It uses the same BLS relative-importance weights, and everything without a live source holds the latest official subindex between prints. What a buyer pays each month for a home is an affordability measure on the housing page, not part of the Gauge. The CPI looks backward at what consumers already paid and is the legal record — it sets the COLA, the tax brackets and TIPS payments. The Gauge is the early read, measured today and tested against the print months out.

The numbers side by side, October 18, 2026

Where the two disagree most — September 2026, component by component

Nowflation's component reads above the matching BLS subindex most in Motor Fuel (39.5% vs 34.2%, +5.3pp), Used Vehicles (0.4% vs -1.5%, +1.8pp), Household Furnishings (2.0% vs 1.6%, +0.4pp) and below it most in Shelter: Owned (2.0% vs 3.3%, -1.3pp), Lodging Away (3.2% vs 4.4%, -1.2pp), Shelter: Rent (2.0% vs 2.8%, -0.8pp). The BLS column is the published subindex year over year; the Nowflation column is the component as it enters the Gauge (seasonally adjusted basis, measured over its own twelve-month base), so the two can differ even where a component carries the official subindex between prints.

How to read the underlying and expectations rows

The median and trimmed-mean measures drop each month's biggest movers and average the rest, so they say what the typical price is doing when eggs or airfares spike. Cleveland Fed median CPI was 2.81% in September 2026 and the 16% trimmed mean 3.53%; Atlanta Fed core sticky CPI, the slow-moving items excluding food and energy, was 2.78%. When headline sits above the trimmed measures the excess is concentrated in a few volatile items; when it sits below, a few items are masking broad pressure. Expectations rows are what markets and households price for the future rather than what has happened: the 5-year breakeven is 2.37% (October 16, 2026) and the Michigan one-year survey 4.0% (August 2026).

A gap between the Gauge and the print of -0.25pp today is mostly shelter (−0.41pp), with motor fuel pulling the other way (+0.17pp); the gap page breaks it down component by component. Both numbers are true answers to different questions, and the lead-test page grades, in public, whether the earlier one is also informative.

Terms on this page

Trimmed-mean and median CPI

Underlying-inflation measures from the Cleveland Fed (median CPI, 16% trimmed-mean CPI) and Dallas Fed (trimmed-mean PCE) that drop the components with the largest price moves each month and average the rest, filtering out one-off spikes such as eggs or airfares. They are shown next to headline and core on the every-measure table.

Core CPI

The CPI excluding food and energy, the two most volatile groups, which gives a steadier read on the underlying trend; the Fed's inflation objective is stated on the headline PCE price index, a related BEA measure, and core PCE is the trend measure it watches most closely. Core is not "inflation without the things you buy" — it is a filter for what tends to persist.

The gap

The difference between the Nowflation CPI Gauge and the latest official CPI print, in percentage points. Over time its largest structural source is shelter timing — rents measured this month versus a survey that reprices each unit every six months — while on a given day live pump and vehicle prices can move it more; it changes sign, and the gap page breaks today's figure down component by component. Nowflation Realtime has its own gap to CPI, shown on its page.

Seasonal adjustment (SA vs NSA)

Seasonal adjustment removes the regular calendar pattern (holiday sales, summer gasoline, January price resets) so month-to-month changes can be compared; BLS quotes the monthly change on the SA index and the year-over-year rate on the NSA index, where seasonality cancels. Nowflation follows the same convention, and its pace figures use the BLS gasoline factors.

PCE price index

The BEA's consumer price measure with broader scope (it includes employer-paid health insurance) and weights that update every month; the Fed's 2% objective is stated on headline PCE, and core PCE is the trend measure it watches most closely.

Related: How the Gauge is built · Why the gap · Supercore · Current US inflation rate