Economic Articles by Steven Fiorillo: original analysis of US inflation

Original, bylined analysis of US inflation by Steven Fiorillo — written pieces, dated and never machine-generated, that sit next to the site's measurements: the daily Nowflation CPI Gauge, the pre-registered CPI forecast and the scoreboard that grades it. Every number quoted in an article is fixed at the date it was written, with the date shown, so a piece reads the same a year later; the live figures are on the pages each article links to.

10 articles, newest first

• Why the Fed Should Pause Before Raising Rates Again — Oct 4, 2026 · 9 min read · fed, rates, inflation, pce, jobs
  The Fed has more data to weigh before raising rates again. Steven Fiorillo walks through the latest inflation, jobs and GDP reports and explains why he would hold rates steady in October.
• What a rate cut actually saves your household — Sep 28, 2026 · 6 min read · fed, rates, mortgages, credit-cards, personal-finance
  A rate cut helps only when it reaches a specific loan. The dollars on credit cards, car loans and mortgages, and what a refinance really saves.
• Renting vs. buying and what owning a home really costs each month — Sep 27, 2026 · 6 min read · housing, mortgages, rent, personal-finance
  Principal and interest isn't the cost of owning. A $400,000 example with taxes, insurance, upkeep, equity and the down payment's opportunity cost.
• Why your electric bill can go up even when you use less power — Sep 26, 2026 · 6 min read · electricity, utilities, energy, personal-finance
  Using less power can still mean a bigger bill. How energy, delivery and fixed charges, billing days and time-of-use rates set what you pay.
• Why America has two inflation numbers and which one actually matters — Sep 25, 2026 · 6 min read · cpi, pce, fed, inflation, methodology
  CPI and PCE measure overlapping slices of inflation with different scope, weights and math. Why they differ, and which one the Fed targets.
• Why mortgage rates don’t move in lockstep with the Fed — Sep 24, 2026 · 6 min read · mortgages, fed, rates, treasury, housing
  The Fed hiked on September 16th but mortgage rates had already moved. Why the 10-year Treasury and the spread set your rate, and how to compare quotes.
• The Fed Hiked Into an Oil Shock and Main Street Is Going to Pay for It — Sep 23, 2026 (updated Oct 4, 2026) · 15 min read · fed, oil, rates, mortgages, jobs
  The Fed raised rates into an oil supply shock. What a hiking cycle means for Treasury yields, mortgages, card debt, corporate refinancing and jobs.
• The Fed Can't Hike Its Way Out of an Oil Shortage — Sep 14, 2026 (updated Oct 4, 2026) · 25 min read · fed, oil, cpi, rates, treasury
  Why another rate hike risks turning a physical energy shock into a federal refinancing problem, a household credit squeeze and a 2027 demand recession
• New York's Estate Tax Cliff: How an Extra $400,000 Leaves Your Heirs With Less — Sep 14, 2026 · 5 min read · taxes, new-york, estate-tax, estate-planning
  New York erases its whole estate tax exclusion once an estate is 5% past the line, so $400,000 more on paper leaves heirs $339,000 poorer. How the cliff works
• The $111 Billion Exodus: What IRS Migration Data Shows About New York's Tax Base — Sep 14, 2026 (updated Oct 4, 2026) · 6 min read · taxes, new-york, migration, irs, budget
  IRS migration files put dollars on New York's outflow: $111 billion of net income from 2011 to 2021 and $9.9 billion more in 2022 to 2023.

Subscribe: RSS feed of the articles · every other feed the site offers.

Related: The daily brief · Print-day analysis · About · Alerts and feeds