Every page on Nowflation

92 pages, one line each, grouped the way the top nav groups them, plus 2,089 generated pages in 7 families. Machine-readable: sitemap.xml.

Inflation Today

PageWhat it shows
US Inflation Today: 3.24% Nowflation vs 3.4% Official CPI (September 2026)Nowflation daily gauge 3.24% YoY as of September 15, 2026; official CPI 3.4% (August 2026), gap -0.16pp. Next CPI Oct 14, forecast 3.49%. Free, no paywall.
Current US Inflation Rate (September 2026): 3.4% CPI, 3.24% NowflationUS inflation is 3.4% (CPI-U, August 2026); core 2.4%. Nowflation daily gauge 3.24% as of September 15, 2026. Next CPI Oct 14. CPI by year and month since 2000.
Daily Inflation Brief: Today's Nowflation Gauge Reading, What Moved and the CPI Print AheadThe Daily Brief: this morning's Nowflation Gauge reading with its day, week and month moves and seasonally adjusted pace, the three things that moved it, the wire paragraph written from the engine's own numbers, the next CPI print with the Nowflation Forecast against the Street, Cleveland Fed and Kalshi, shelter, fuel and Truflation lines — plus a dated archive of every brief. Published 9 AM ET daily, 8:45 on print days.
September 2026 CPI Live (Oct 14, 8:30 AM ET): Sealed Call 3.49% vs Street 3.7%Countdown to the September 2026 CPI release on October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation's sealed, SHA-256-hashed call 3.49% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed…
Economic Articles by Steven Fiorillo: original analysis of US inflation3 original articles on US inflation by Steven Fiorillo, MBA, 1,600+ Seeking Alpha articles, co-host of Basis Points.
Inflation Analysis & CPI Print-Day Reports — NowflationPrint-day breakdowns of every CPI release: the actual vs every graded forecaster, the components that drove it, and what the daily gauge saw ahead of the print.
Nowflation Gauge Today: 3.24% — How the Daily Inflation Index Is Built (September 2026)The Nowflation Gauge reads 3.24% YoY as of September 15, 2026, 43.5% of the CPI basket priced from live market sources.
Why Nowflation (3.24%) Differs From Official CPI (3.4%): The Gap ExplainedThe gap is -0.16pp as of September 15, 2026: market rents measured this month vs a BLS survey that reprices each unit every six months.
Nowflation vs BLS CPI (September 2026): 3.24% vs 3.4%, and Every US Inflation Measure on One TableGauge 3.24% (as of September 15, 2026) next to official CPI 3.4% (August 2026), core PCE, median and trimmed-mean CPI, sticky CPI, breakevens and surveys —…
Truflation vs CPI vs Nowflation: Real-Time Inflation Gauges Graded Against the Official PrintTruflation's daily inflation index next to the Nowflation Gauge and official CPI: today's gaps, every print since 2019 graded the same way, a lead test.
Does Real-Time Inflation Data Lead CPI? The Lead TestThe Lead Test: every Nowflation gauge variant on the eve of each CPI print since 2019, and its correlation with CPI months ahead vs CPI's own persistence.
Nowflation — Economy Heat CheckIs the economy heating or cooling? One dial built from 22 standardized momentum indicators — prices, real economy, pipeline, housing, money — with history back to 2018 and a plain-English why for every reading.
Food Inflation Today (September 2026): 2.48% Nowflation vs 2.7% CPI FoodFood inflation is 2.48% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of September 14, 2026, vs 2.7% on the official August 2026 CPI food print (gap -0.22pp).
Shelter Inflation Today (September 2026): 2.09% Nowflation vs 3.0% CPI ShelterShelter inflation is 2.09% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of September 14, 2026, vs 3.0% on the official August 2026 CPI shelter print (gap -0.91pp).
Energy Inflation Today (September 2026): 17.98% Nowflation vs 16.3% CPI EnergyEnergy inflation is 17.98% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of September 14, 2026, vs 16.3% on the official August 2026 CPI energy print (gap +1.68pp).
Core Inflation Today (September 2026): 2.33% Nowflation vs 2.4% CPI CoreCore inflation is 2.33% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of September 14, 2026, vs 2.4% on the official August 2026 CPI core print (gap -0.07pp).
Services Inflation Today (September 2026): 2.33% Nowflation vs 3.0% CPI ServicesServices inflation is 2.33% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of September 14, 2026, vs 3.0% on the official August 2026 CPI services print (gap -0.67pp).
Supercore Inflation Today: 2.57% Services Ex-Shelter (September 2026)Supercore — core services excluding housing, the Fed's sticky-inflation gauge — reads 2.57% YoY as of September 14, 2026, computed from the official BLS…

Forecast

PageWhat it shows
CPI Forecast September 2026: Nowflation 3.49% vs Consensus 3.7%, Released Oct 14Pre-registered Nowflation forecast for the September 2026 CPI (due October 14, 2026, 8:30 AM ET): 3.49% vs Street 3.7%, prior 3.4% (August 2026).
CPI Forecast Scoreboard: 2 Nowflation live calls graded since June 20262 pre-registered Nowflation Forecasts graded since June 2026 (live MAE 0.228pp); the Street consensus and Cleveland Fed record covers 44 prints since December…
Nowflation vs Truflation vs Cleveland Fed vs Street vs Kalshi (September 2026): One Chart, 38 Prints GradedSix inflation calls on one daily chart since July 2023 with every CPI print as a marker. On the eve of 38 prints: Street consensus closest at 0.084pp MAE;…
CPI Release Dates 2026–2027: Next Report Oct 14, 8:30 AM ETThe CPI for September 2026 is released October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET — consensus 3.7%, Nowflation forecast 3.49%.
Economic Calendar This Week: Consensus vs Actual for Every ReleaseThis week's economic data releases with consensus, actual and previous - CPI, jobs report, FOMC, PMIs, GDP - filtered by market impact and country. Updated every morning, free.
Inflation Alerts: CPI, PCE and Jobs Release Calendar Feed, RSS and EmailNowflation alerts and feeds: subscribe to the CPI, PCE and jobs release calendar (.ics), the Daily Brief by RSS, the print-day email, or embed the Gauge. No app, no account.
Prediction Markets Today: Fed Odds, Recession Odds, Inflation Over/UndersWhat real-money prediction markets say right now - Polymarket and Kalshi odds on Fed rate decisions, 2026 recession, CPI over/unders and the next election, refreshed every morning.
Fed Meeting September 2026: Rate Hike Odds, Taylor Rule Today & What the Fed SeesFed Watch for the September 16, 2026 FOMC meeting: market-implied rate hike odds from Kalshi, the Taylor rule today vs the effective fed funds rate (adjustable r* and NAIRU), core PCE vs the 2% target with Nowflation's nowcast for the next print, unemployment vs NAIRU, the yield curve and real rates. Free, cited, updated daily.

Prices

PageWhat it shows
Egg Prices Today (September 2026): $2.27/dozen, -36.7% YoYUS average a dozen large grade-A eggs: $2.27/dozen (BLS, August 2026), -36.7% YoY. USDA retail index 82.8 (Sep 30, -19.1% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Milk Prices Today (September 2026): $4.23/gallon, +1.4% YoYUS average a gallon of whole milk: $4.23/gallon (BLS, August 2026), +1.4% YoY. USDA retail index 146.6 (Sep 30, -0.1% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Butter Prices Today (September 2026): $4.02/lb, -16.7% YoYUS average a pound of butter: $4.02/lb (BLS, August 2026), -16.7% YoY. USDA retail index 146.6 (Sep 30, -0.1% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Cheese Prices Today (September 2026): $5.98/lb, -2.3% YoYUS average a pound of cheddar cheese: $5.98/lb (BLS, August 2026), -2.3% YoY. USDA retail index 146.6 (Sep 30, -0.1% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Bacon Prices Today (September 2026): $6.61/lb, -8.4% YoYUS average a pound of sliced bacon: $6.61/lb (BLS, August 2026), -8.4% YoY. USDA retail index 115.2 (Sep 30, -2.2% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Chicken Prices Today (September 2026): $2.01/lb, -3.1% YoYUS average a pound of whole chicken: $2.01/lb (BLS, August 2026), -3.1% YoY. USDA retail index 129.1 (Sep 30, -6.0% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Ground Beef Prices Today (September 2026): $6.92/lb, +9.6% YoYUS average a pound of ground beef: $6.92/lb (BLS, August 2026), +9.6% YoY. USDA retail index 206.9 (Sep 30, +7.8% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Bread Prices (latest: August 2026, BLS): $1.82/lb, -1.0% YoYUS average a pound of white bread: $1.82/lb (BLS, August 2026), -1.0% YoY. Next update Oct 14. History, regions, the chain upstream.
Flour Prices (latest: August 2026, BLS): $0.55/lb, -1.6% YoYUS average a pound of all-purpose flour: $0.55/lb (BLS, August 2026), -1.6% YoY. Next update Oct 14. History, regions, the chain upstream.
Rice Prices (latest: August 2026, BLS): $1.11/lb, +4.9% YoYUS average a pound of long-grain white rice: $1.11/lb (BLS, August 2026), +4.9% YoY. Next update Oct 14. History, regions, the chain upstream.
Coffee Prices (latest: August 2026, BLS): $9.30/lb, +4.8% YoYUS average a pound of ground coffee: $9.30/lb (BLS, August 2026), +4.8% YoY. Next update Oct 14. History, regions, the chain upstream.
Chocolate & Cocoa Prices (latest: August 2026, BLS): $5.21/lb, +1.8% YoYUS average a pound of chocolate chip cookies: $5.21/lb (BLS, August 2026), +1.8% YoY. Next update Oct 14. History, regions, the chain upstream.
Potato Prices Today (September 2026): $0.98/lb, -2.5% YoYUS average a pound of white potatoes: $0.98/lb (BLS, August 2026), -2.5% YoY. USDA retail index 60.7 (Sep 30, +1.1% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Tomato Prices Today (September 2026): $1.98/lb, +2.7% YoYUS average a pound of field-grown tomatoes: $1.98/lb (BLS, August 2026), +2.7% YoY. USDA retail index 60.7 (Sep 30, +1.1% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Banana Prices Today (September 2026): $0.65/lb, -2.1% YoYUS average a pound of bananas: $0.65/lb (BLS, August 2026), -2.1% YoY. USDA retail index 60.7 (Sep 30, +1.1% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Orange Prices Today (September 2026): $1.71/lb, -4.8% YoYUS average a pound of navel oranges: $1.71/lb (BLS, August 2026), -4.8% YoY. USDA retail index 60.7 (Sep 30, +1.1% vs last year). Next update Oct 14.
Gas Prices Today (September 2026): $4.32/gallonUS average a gallon of regular gasoline: $4.32/gallon (AAA, September 2026). Next update Oct 14. History, regions, the chain upstream.
Electricity Prices (latest: August 2026, BLS): $0.20/kWh, +3.2% YoYUS average a kilowatt-hour of electricity: $0.20/kWh (BLS, August 2026), +3.2% YoY. Next update Oct 14. History, regions, the chain upstream.
Commodity Prices Today: Gold, Oil, Copper, Wheat - Daily, Weekly, YTDLive commodity price table - energy, precious metals, industrial metals, agriculture and livestock with day, week, month, YTD and year-over-year moves, plus the dollar index and major FX pairs. Free, updated every trading day.
Nowflation — Farm to ShelfThe full price chain for grocery staples: futures, USDA farm-gate prices and BLS shelf prices — who is eating the margin between the farmer and your receipt?
Heating Costs This Winter 2026-27: Natural Gas, Electricity, Heating Oil & Propane vs Last WinterThe Heating Season Index: what a winter of heat costs a typical US home this winter vs last, by fuel (gas, electricity, heating oil, propane), 50 states.
Thanksgiving Dinner Cost 2026: Turkey, Sides & Staples Priced Monthly from BLS Shelf DataThe Thanksgiving Dinner Index: a classic dinner for 10 priced monthly since 2018 from BLS average prices — this year vs last vs 2019, the turkey history.
Build Your Grocery Cart - What It Costs Today vs Any YearPick real grocery items, set quantities, and see what your exact cart costs today, a year ago and five years ago - your personal food inflation rate from public BLS shelf prices.

Economy

PageWhat it shows
Nowflation — Jobs & Recession WatchPayrolls Nowflation Forecast graded against Wall Street, jobless claims, wage trackers, the Sahm rule and the classic recession signals — updated daily, free.
US GDP Nowcast Today — Live Current-Quarter GrowthLive US current-quarter real GDP growth nowcast: Atlanta Fed GDPNow, the St. Louis Fed news-index nowcast, and the Weekly Economic Index — updated as the data lands. Free public sources, no paywall.
US Recession Risk Right Now: Sahm Rule, Yield Curve, WEI - One DashboardThe five recession indicators economists actually watch - Sahm rule, 10y-3m curve, Weekly Economic Index, financial conditions, recession probability - with trigger rules in plain English.
US Macro Dashboard: Rates, Labor, Inflation Internals, Housing, Fed LiquidityAround 90 FRED series across 8 themes - rates and credit, labor, inflation internals, housing, consumer, industrial, growth and recession, Fed liquidity - each with trend and latest print. The whole US economy on one page, free.
Real Wage Tracker - Are Your Raises Beating Inflation?Wage growth vs the daily inflation gauge, plus a calculator: enter your raise and see your real gain against today's prices and official CPI. Free.
US Consumer Stress Index - Delinquencies, Savings, Debt Service on One DialA 0-100 consumer stress dial built from card and mortgage delinquencies, credit card APRs, the saving rate, debt service and jobless claims - open methodology, official data.
US Housing Today (September 2026): Buy $1,945/mo vs Rent $1,962/mo at 7.17% MortgageTypical US home costs $1,945/mo to buy (P&I, 7.17% 30-yr) vs $1,962 to rent (Zillow, July 2026); home value $371,774.
Mortgage Rates Today: Daily 30yr, 15yr, Jumbo, FHA, VA Rates + The Real PaymentDaily mortgage lock rates by loan type from Optimal Blue, the MND survey and Freddie PMMS, the spread over the 10-year Treasury, delinquency and debt service, and the monthly payment on the typical US home.
Rent Inflation Today (September 2026): 2.09% All-Tenant Rent vs 2.75% CPI RentCPI rent 2.75% and OER 3.08% YoY (August 2026); Nowflation's all-tenant rent index 2.09% as of September 14, 2026. Why official rent lags market rents, charted.
Inflation Rate by State 2026: Cost Pressure by StateHow fast costs are rising in each state, not how high they are: the mean percentile of YoY change in electricity, natural gas, gasoline and home prices as of…
Metro Inflation 2026: Rent and Home Prices in 50 US Cities — San Francisco Fastest, San Antonio SlowestRent inflation across 50 metros: San Francisco +9.7% to San Antonio -1.8% YoY, with home values and the monthly payment. Zillow data, updated monthly.
World Economy by Country: GDP, Inflation, Debt, Central Bank Rates for 208 CountriesCompare 208 countries on GDP, growth, inflation, unemployment, central-bank policy rates, debt-to-GDP and demographics. World Bank, IMF and BIS data - rankings, country profiles and a G20-style matrix, free.
US Rates Today: Full Treasury Curve, Mortgage, Auto and Credit Card RatesThe whole Treasury yield curve today vs a month and a year ago, plus every consumer borrowing cost: 30yr and 15yr mortgage, auto loans, credit card APR, credit spreads.
Tariff Tax Tracker: Daily Customs Revenue and the Cost of the DebtHow much tariff revenue the US Treasury collected, daily, plus interest expense on the public debt and total debt outstanding - straight from the keyless Treasury FiscalData API.
US Debt Maturity Wall: How Much Treasury Debt Matures and What It Costs to Refinance$31.82T of marketable Treasury debt; 34% ($10.83T) matures within 12 months at a 3.4% weighted coupon vs 3.961% to refinance today, adding $61B a year.
US Money Supply Today: M2, Money Market Cash, Fed Balance Sheet, Net LiquidityM2 money supply, cash in money market funds, the Fed balance sheet, reverse repo, the Treasury General Account and computed Net Liquidity - the monetary upstream of inflation, free on one page, updated daily.
FX and the Dollar Today: DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Live Rates and HistoryThe dollar index and 13 major currency pairs with day, week, month, YTD and YoY moves plus full history charts. Free, updated every trading day.
Inflation Expectations Today (September 2026): 5-Year Breakeven 2.4%, 10-Year 2.36%, 5y5y 2.32%Market-priced inflation expectations as of September 11, 2026: 5-year breakeven 2.4%, 10-year 2.36%, 5y5y forward 2.32%, plus the Michigan and Cleveland Fed…
Global Oil Production Tracker — Every Country, Monthly + World Supply & DemandCrude oil production for ~90 countries with monthly history to 1973, the world supply/demand balance with the EIA's 18-month forecast, OPEC vs non-OPEC, inventory draws, Brent path, and weekly US output. Free, no paywall, one cited source.
US Energy Fundamentals: Crude Inventories, SPR, Nat Gas Storage vs 5-Year RangeThe EIA weekly numbers that move oil and gas markets - crude and gasoline inventories vs the 5-year range, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, US production and exports, natural gas storage, and pump prices. Free, updated after every EIA release.
Oil vs CPI: 80 Years of Correlation, Pass-Through, Inflation Expectations & Real Oil PricesWTI crude vs US CPI since 1947 on one chart: the correlation record and regime, how many months oil leads inflation, what a 10% oil move is worth in CPI.
The Inflation Pipeline — Watch Prices Move From Futures to Your CPIEvery stage of the price chain on one page: futures, producer and freight costs, wholesale, the shelf, and the official CPI — with live YoY heat at each stage and the lead times between them. Free, no paywall.
Data Revision Tracker: Payrolls, CPI, GDP - Initial Print vs What It Is NowEvery payroll, CPI, retail sales and GDP print since 2015: the number as first reported vs the number today, from the Fed's own vintage archive. See how often the jobs report gets revised down and by how much.
100 Years of US Economic Data: Inflation Since 1913, Rates, Debt, UnemploymentA century of US data on one page - CPI inflation since 1913, the 10-year Treasury since 1925, fed funds, mortgage rates, unemployment, debt-to-GDP and M2 growth - plus average inflation and debt change by president.
Ratio Charts: Gold-to-Silver, Dow-to-Gold, Copper-to-Gold, S&P 500-to-M2Classic market ratio charts - gold/silver, Dow/gold, S&P/gold, copper/gold, oil/natgas, S&P-to-M2 - with recession shading, plus real inflation-adjusted gold, silver and oil prices using official CPI or the Nowflation daily deflator.

Tools

PageWhat it shows
My Inflation Calculator: Your Personal Inflation Rate vs 3.4% CPI and 3.24% Nowflation (September 2026)Reweight the 3.24% national gauge (as of September 15, 2026) to your own spending — rent or own, driving, dining, healthcare, tuition — and your state's…
Inflation Calculator: $100 in 2021 Is $128.04 Today (September 2026)$100 in January 2021 costs $128.04 as of September 14, 2026 — 28.0% cumulative inflation on the Nowflation daily index.
Build Your Grocery Cart - What It Costs Today vs Any YearPick real grocery items, set quantities, and see what your exact cart costs today, a year ago and five years ago - your personal food inflation rate from public BLS shelf prices.
2027 Social Security COLA Estimate: 3.4% (updated September 15, 2026)Projected 2027 COLA: 3.4%, computed with SSA's CPI-W formula from actual BLS prints plus the Nowflation forecast, as of September 15, 2026.
I Bond Rate November 2026 Prediction: 3.2% Variable Rate (1.6% Semiannual)Projected November 2026 I bond inflation rate: 3.2% variable (1.6% semiannual), from CPI-U March 2026→September 2026, as of September 15, 2026.
2027 Tax Brackets Projection: IRS Inflation Adjustment 3.24% (updated September 15, 2026)Projected 2027 federal tax brackets and standard deduction from the chained CPI-U, adjustment 3.24%, as of September 15, 2026.
Inflation Alerts: CPI, PCE and Jobs Release Calendar Feed, RSS and EmailNowflation alerts and feeds: subscribe to the CPI, PCE and jobs release calendar (.ics), the Daily Brief by RSS, the print-day email, or embed the Gauge. No app, no account.
Embed Nowflation — Free Inflation & Macro WidgetsDrop any Nowflation series on your site with one iframe — free, cached, always current.
Nowflation — Open DataEvery number on Nowflation as free flat files: daily inflation gauge, Nowflation Forecasts, jobs, housing, farm-to-shelf. No key, no rate limit — credit and link back.
Every Data Series We Track - Nowflation Open Directory1,710 public data series behind the Nowflation inflation engine - every input browsable, chartable and downloadable. The opposite of a black box.
Nowflation Methodology: 1,710 Series, 33 Sources, Base January 2018 = 100How the daily gauge is built: 30 input series across the 21 CPI components, 1,710 public series from 33 sources. Vintage-true history, dated changelog.
Nowflation Guide — How to Use the Site, and Every Term DefinedWhat Nowflation is, how to get everything out of it in five minutes — the gauge, the gap, the forecast and scoreboard, the macro trackers, the calculators — and a plain-English glossary of every term the site uses.
Inflation Glossary: Nowcast, Supercore, OER, Base Effects, Breakevens DefinedPlain-English definitions of the terms behind every inflation number — nowcast, supercore, owners' equivalent rent, all-tenant rent, base effects, trimmed…
Nowflation — System Status & Data HealthLive system status for the Nowflation inflation engine: data-integrity self-test, per-source freshness, and publish health. The morning publish is blocked automatically if a critical check fails.
Nowflation Corrections Log (September 2026): Every Published Number We Changed, DatedEvery correction to a published Nowflation number — the publication-dated gauge rebuild, the v1.2/v1.3 constructions, the frozen Manheim months, the coverage…
About Nowflation — Who Builds This, and WhyWho builds Nowflation and why: a real-time US inflation gauge with public methodology, open data, and forecasts graded after every CPI print. Built by Steven Fiorillo, Fiorillo Media.
Contact Nowflation — Corrections, Questions, PressContact Nowflation for corrections, data questions, or press. Every figure traces to a public source series — errors get fixed and logged in the changelog.
Privacy Policy — NowflationHow nowflation.com handles data: a static site with no accounts and no personal-data collection, plus full disclosure of advertising cookies and your choices.
Nowflation Terms of Use: Open Data License, No Warranty, Not Investment AdviceThe terms for using nowflation.com: the open data is free with attribution and a link back, figures come from third-party public sources with no warranty,…
Every page on NowflationThe full list of pages on Nowflation, one line per page with what it shows, grouped the way the top nav groups them.

Generated pages

FamilyPagesIndex
Series directory — every public series with its chart, CSV and JSON1,710 under /series/indicators
CPI print-day pages — one per print, graded after the release16 under /cpi/analysis
The Daily Brief archive — one per publish day; briefs older than 30 days are kept but not indexed60 under /brief/brief
Economic articles — original writing3 under /articles/articles
Countries208 under /country/countries
Commodities42 under /commodity/commodities
Metros50 under /metro/metros