Every page on Nowflation

95 pages, one line each, grouped the way the top nav groups them, plus 2,275 generated pages in 8 families. Machine-readable: sitemap.xml.

Inflation Today

PageWhat it shows
US Inflation Today: 3.20% Nowflation Realtime (Oct 17) vs 3.7% Official CPI (September 2026)Nowflation Realtime 3.20% YoY as of Oct 17; official CPI 3.7% (September 2026); Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.46%. Next CPI Nov 10, forecast 3.9% (3.86% unrounded).
Current US Inflation Rate: 3.7% CPI for September 2026, 3.20% Nowflation Realtime on Oct 17US inflation is 3.7% (CPI-U, September 2026); core 2.6%. Nowflation Realtime 3.20% as of Oct 17. Next CPI Nov 10. CPI by year and month since 2000.
Daily Inflation Brief: Nowflation Realtime 3.20% Today vs September CPI 3.7%, October 2026 CPI Due Nov 10Today's Daily Brief and the dated archive. Gauge 3.46% YoY, −0.020pp on the day and −0.002pp on the week.
October 2026 CPI Live (Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET): Current Call 3.9% vs Street TBAThe October 2026 CPI is released November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation's current call (sealed the evening before the release) 3.9% vs Street TBA.
Economic Articles by Steven Fiorillo: original analysis of US inflation10 original articles on US inflation by Steven Fiorillo, MBA, 1,600+ Seeking Alpha articles, co-host of Basis Points.
Inflation Analysis & CPI Print-Day Reports — NowflationPrint-day breakdowns of every CPI release: the actual vs every graded forecaster, the components that drove it, and what the daily gauge saw ahead of the print.
Nowflation CPI Gauge Today: 3.46% — How the Daily Inflation Index Is Built (October 2026)The Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.46% YoY as of October 17, 2026, 39.7% of the CPI basket priced from live market sources.
Why the Nowflation CPI Gauge (3.46%) Differs From Official CPI (3.7%): The Gap ExplainedThe gap is -0.24pp as of October 17, 2026, today mostly shelter (−0.41pp), with motor fuel pulling the other way (+0.18pp).
Nowflation CPI Gauge vs BLS CPI: 3.46% on Oct 17 vs 3.7% for September 2026, and Every US Inflation Measure on One TableGauge 3.46% (Oct 17) next to official CPI 3.7% (September 2026), core PCE, median, trimmed-mean and sticky CPI, breakevens and surveys, on one cited table.
Nowflation Realtime and Nowflation CPI Gauge vs Truflation vs CPI: Real-Time Inflation Readings Beside the Official PrintNowflation Realtime and the Nowflation CPI Gauge vs Truflation and CPI: today's gaps, and the CPI Gauge and Truflation graded on every print since 2019.
Does Real-Time Inflation Data Lead CPI? The Lead TestThe Lead Test: every Nowflation gauge variant on the eve of each CPI print since 2019, and its correlation with CPI months ahead vs CPI's own persistence.
Nowflation — Economy Heat CheckIs the economy heating or cooling? One dial built from 21 standardized momentum indicators — prices, real economy, pipeline, housing, money — with history back to 2018 and a plain-English why for every reading.
Food Inflation Today: 2.44% Nowflation (Oct 17) vs 2.5% CPI Food (September 2026)Food inflation is 2.44% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of October 17, 2026, vs 2.5% on the official September 2026 CPI food print (gap -0.06pp).
Shelter Inflation Today: 1.97% Nowflation (Oct 17) vs 3.2% CPI Shelter (September 2026)Shelter inflation is 1.97% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of October 17, 2026, vs 3.2% on the official September 2026 CPI shelter print (gap -1.23pp).
Energy Inflation Today: 22.70% Nowflation (Oct 17) vs 20.4% CPI Energy (September 2026)Energy inflation is 22.70% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of October 17, 2026, vs 20.4% on the official September 2026 CPI energy print (gap +2.30pp).
Core Inflation Today: 2.10% Nowflation (Oct 17) vs 2.6% CPI Core (September 2026)Core inflation is 2.10% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of October 17, 2026, vs 2.6% on the official September 2026 CPI core print (gap -0.50pp).
Services Inflation Today: 2.20% Nowflation (Oct 17) vs 3.1% CPI Services (September 2026)Services inflation is 2.20% YoY on Nowflation's daily reading as of October 17, 2026, vs 3.1% on the official September 2026 CPI services print (gap -0.90pp).
Supercore Inflation: 2.40% Services Ex-Shelter (September 2026 CPI)Supercore (core services excluding housing, the Fed's sticky-inflation gauge) is 2.40% YoY on the September 2026 CPI.

Forecast

PageWhat it shows
CPI Forecast October 2026: Nowflation 3.9% vs Consensus TBA, Released Nov 10October 2026 CPI (due Nov 10): Nowflation forecast 3.9% (3.86% unrounded) vs Street TBA, prior 3.7% (September 2026). Locks before the print; graded after.
CPI Forecast Scoreboard: 3 Nowflation live calls graded since June 20263 pre-registered Nowflation Forecasts graded since June 2026 (live MAE 0.212pp). Street and Cleveland Fed record: 45 prints since December 2022.
Nowflation vs Truflation vs Cleveland Fed vs Street vs Kalshi (October 2026): One Chart, 39 Prints GradedFive inflation calls on one daily chart since July 2023 with every CPI print as a marker.
CPI Release Dates 2026: Next Report Nov 10, 8:30 AM ETThe CPI for October 2026 is released November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET, Nowflation forecast 3.9% (3.86% unrounded).
Economic Calendar This Week: Consensus vs Actual for Every ReleaseThis week's economic data releases with consensus, actual and previous - CPI, jobs report, FOMC, PMIs, GDP - filtered by market impact and country. Updated every morning, free.
Inflation Alerts: CPI, PCE and Jobs Release Calendar Feed, RSS and EmailNowflation alerts and feeds: subscribe to the CPI, PCE and jobs release calendar (.ics), the Daily Brief by RSS, the print-day email, or embed the Gauge. No app, no account.
Prediction Markets Today: Fed Odds, Recession Odds, Inflation Over/UndersWhat real-money prediction markets say right now - Polymarket and Kalshi odds on Fed rate decisions, 2026 recession, CPI over/unders and the next election, refreshed every morning.
Fed Meeting October 2026: Rate Hold Odds 87%, Taylor Rule Today 4.51%Fed Watch for the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting: Kalshi prices fed maintains rate at 87% (implied +3bp).

Prices

PageWhat it shows
Egg Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $2.27/dozen, -34.9% YoYUS average price of a dozen large grade-A eggs: $2.27/dozen (BLS, September 2026), -34.9% YoY.
Milk Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $4.11/gallon, -0.6% YoYUS average price of a gallon of whole milk: $4.11/gallon (BLS, September 2026), -0.6% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 144.2, +2.9% YoY.
Butter Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $3.96/lb, -17.3% YoYUS average price of a pound of butter: $3.96/lb (BLS, September 2026), -17.3% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 144.2, +2.9% YoY.
Cheese Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $6.13/lb, +1.4% YoYUS average price of a pound of cheddar cheese: $6.13/lb (BLS, September 2026), +1.4% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 144.2, +2.9% YoY.
Bacon Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $6.76/lb, -7.3% YoYUS average price of a pound of sliced bacon: $6.76/lb (BLS, September 2026), -7.3% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 117.8, -3.8% YoY.
Chicken Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $2.06/lb, +0.1% YoYUS average price of a pound of whole chicken: $2.06/lb (BLS, September 2026), +0.1% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 126.6, -3.8% YoY.
Ground Beef Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $6.79/lb, +7.4% YoYUS average price of a pound of ground beef: $6.79/lb (BLS, September 2026), +7.4% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 203.5, +3.0% YoY.
Bread Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $1.83/lb, -2.0% YoYUS average price of a pound of white bread: $1.83/lb (BLS, September 2026), -2.0% YoY. Next update Nov 10. History, regions, related prices.
Flour Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $0.545/lb, -3.2% YoYUS average price of a pound of all-purpose flour: $0.545/lb (BLS, September 2026), -3.2% YoY. Next update Nov 10. History, related prices.
Rice Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $1.12/lb, +5.5% YoYUS average price of a pound of long-grain white rice: $1.12/lb (BLS, September 2026), +5.5% YoY. Next update Nov 10. History.
Coffee Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $9.33/lb, +2.1% YoYUS average price of a pound of ground coffee: $9.33/lb (BLS, September 2026), +2.1% YoY. Next update Nov 10. History, related prices.
Chocolate & Cocoa Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $5.15/lb chocolate chip cookies, +0.0% YoYUS average price of a pound of chocolate chip cookies: $5.15/lb (BLS, September 2026), +0.0% YoY. Next update Nov 10. History, related prices.
Potato Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $0.989/lb, -2.5% YoYUS average price of a pound of white potatoes: $0.989/lb (BLS, September 2026), -2.5% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 60.9, +1.1% YoY.
Tomato Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $1.99/lb, +4.3% YoYUS average price of a pound of field-grown tomatoes: $1.99/lb (BLS, September 2026), +4.3% YoY.
Banana Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $0.656/lb, -2.1% YoYUS average price of a pound of bananas: $0.656/lb (BLS, September 2026), -2.1% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 60.9, +1.1% YoY.
Orange Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $1.72/lb, -4.4% YoYUS average price of a pound of navel oranges: $1.72/lb (BLS, September 2026), -4.4% YoY. Index of USDA-reported ad prices, September 2026: 60.9, +1.1% YoY.
Gas Prices Today (October 2026): $4.31/gallonUS average price of a gallon of regular gasoline: $4.31/gallon (AAA, Oct 17); EIA weekly average +41.5% YoY. Updated daily. History, regions, related prices.
Electricity Prices (latest: September 2026, BLS): $0.196/kWh, +4.3% YoYUS average price of a kilowatt-hour of electricity: $0.196/kWh (BLS, September 2026), +4.3% YoY. Next update Nov 10. History, regions, related prices.
Commodity Prices Today: Gold, Oil, Copper, Wheat - Daily, Weekly, YTDLive commodity price table - energy, precious metals, industrial metals, agriculture and livestock with day, week, month, YTD and year-over-year moves, plus the dollar index and major FX pairs. Free, updated every trading day.
Nowflation — Farm to ShelfThe full price chain for grocery staples: futures, USDA farm-gate prices and BLS shelf prices — who is eating the margin between the farmer and your receipt?
Heating Costs This Winter 2026-27: Gas, Electricity, Heating Oil & Propane vs Last WinterHeating a typical US home this winter (2026-27) is projected at $932, +0.7% vs $925 last winter, from EIA prices and EIA's STEO path as of October 17, 2026.
Thanksgiving Dinner Cost 2026: $75.32 for 10 at September 2026 Prices, vs Last Year and 2019A classic dinner for 10 costs $75.32 at September 2026 BLS shelf prices, +1.0% YoY. Thanksgiving 2026: $75.32 on the November print, $70.88 projected.
Build Your Grocery Cart - What It Costs Today vs Any YearPick real grocery items, set quantities, and see what your exact cart costs today, a year ago and five years ago - your personal food inflation rate from public BLS shelf prices.

Economy

PageWhat it shows
US Jobs Report Preview & Labor Market: NFP Forecast, Claims, JOLTS, WagesPayrolls Nowflation Forecast graded against Wall Street, jobless claims, wage trackers, the Sahm rule and the classic recession signals — updated daily, free.
US GDP Nowcast Today — Live Current-Quarter GrowthLive US current-quarter real GDP growth nowcast: Atlanta Fed GDPNow, the St. Louis Fed news-index nowcast, and the Weekly Economic Index — updated as the data lands. Free public sources, no paywall.
US Recession Risk Right Now: Sahm Rule, Yield Curve, WEI - One DashboardThe five recession indicators economists actually watch - Sahm rule, 10y-3m curve, Weekly Economic Index, financial conditions, recession probability - with trigger rules in plain English.
US Macro Dashboard: Rates, Labor, Inflation Internals, Housing, Fed LiquidityAround 90 FRED series across 8 themes - rates and credit, labor, inflation internals, housing, consumer, industrial, growth and recession, Fed liquidity - each with trend and latest print. The whole US economy on one page, free.
Real Wage Tracker - Are Your Raises Beating Inflation?Wage growth vs the daily inflation gauge, plus a calculator: enter your raise and see your real gain against today's prices and official CPI. Free.
US Consumer Stress Index - Delinquencies, Savings, Debt Service on One DialA 0-100 consumer stress dial built from card and mortgage delinquencies, credit card APRs, the saving rate, debt service and jobless claims - open methodology, official data.
US Housing Today: Buy $2,028/mo at 7.40% (Oct 15) vs Rent $1,932/mo (September 2026)Typical US home costs $2,028/mo to buy (P&I, 20% down, Freddie Mac 7.4%, October 15, 2026) vs $1,932 to rent (Zillow, September 2026); home value $366,157.
Mortgage Rates Today: Daily 30yr, 15yr, Jumbo, FHA, VA Rates + The Real PaymentDaily mortgage lock rates by loan type from Optimal Blue, the MND survey and Freddie PMMS, the spread over the 10-year Treasury, delinquency and debt service, and the monthly payment on the typical US home.
Rent Inflation Today: 1.97% All-Tenant Rent (Oct 17) vs 2.78% CPI Rent (September 2026)CPI rent 2.78% and OER 3.28% YoY (September 2026); Nowflation's all-tenant rent index 1.97% as of October 17, 2026.
Cost Pressure by State 2026: How Fast Three Living Costs Are Rising, Not a State CPIHow fast costs are rising in each state, not how high they are: YoY change in electricity (July 2026), natural gas (July 2026) and home prices (2026 Q2).
Metro Inflation 2026: Rent and Home Prices in 50 US Cities — San Francisco Fastest, San Antonio SlowestRent inflation across 50 metros: San Francisco +11.8% to San Antonio -0.7% YoY, with home values and the monthly payment. Zillow data, updated monthly.
World Economy by Country: GDP, Inflation, Debt, Central Bank Rates for 208 CountriesCompare 208 countries on GDP, growth, inflation, unemployment, central-bank policy rates, debt-to-GDP and demographics. World Bank, IMF and BIS data - rankings, country profiles and a G20-style matrix, free.
US Rates Today: Full Treasury Curve, Mortgage, Auto and Credit Card RatesThe whole Treasury yield curve today vs a month and a year ago, plus every consumer borrowing cost: 30yr and 15yr mortgage, auto loans, credit card APR, credit spreads.
Tariff Tax Tracker: Daily Customs Revenue and the Cost of the DebtHow much tariff revenue the US Treasury collected, daily, plus interest expense on the public debt and total debt outstanding - straight from the keyless Treasury FiscalData API.
US Debt Maturity Wall: How Much Treasury Debt Matures and What It Costs to Refinance$31.83T of marketable Treasury debt; 33.4% ($10.64T) matures within 12 months at a 3.442% weighted coupon vs 4.201% to refinance today, adding $81B a year.
US Money Supply Today: M2, Money Market Cash, Fed Balance Sheet, Net LiquidityM2 money supply, cash in money market funds, the Fed balance sheet, reverse repo, the Treasury General Account and computed Net Liquidity - the monetary upstream of inflation, free on one page, updated daily.
FX and the Dollar Today: DXY, EUR/USD, USD/JPY - Live Rates and HistoryThe dollar index and 13 major currency pairs with day, week, month, YTD and YoY moves plus full history charts. Free, updated every trading day.
Inflation Expectations Today (October 2026): 5-Year Breakeven 2.37%, 10-Year 2.35%, 5y5y 2.33%Market-priced inflation expectations as of October 16, 2026: 5-year breakeven 2.37%, 10-year 2.35%, 5y5y forward 2.33%.
Global Oil Production Tracker — Every Country, Monthly + World Supply & DemandCrude oil production for ~90 countries with monthly history to 1973, the world supply/demand balance with the EIA's 18-month forecast, OPEC vs non-OPEC, inventory draws, Brent path, and weekly US output. Free, no paywall, one cited source.
US Energy Fundamentals: Crude Inventories, SPR, Nat Gas Storage vs 5-Year RangeThe EIA weekly numbers that move oil and gas markets - crude and gasoline inventories vs the 5-year range, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, US production and exports, natural gas storage, and pump prices. Free, updated after every EIA release.
Oil vs CPI: 80 Years of Correlation, Pass-Through, Inflation Expectations & Real PricesMonthly WTI crude vs US CPI since January 1947: the correlation record, how many months oil leads inflation, and how much of an oil move reaches CPI.
The Inflation Pipeline — Watch Prices Move From Futures to Your CPIEvery stage of the price chain on one page: futures, producer and freight costs, wholesale, the shelf, and the official CPI — with live YoY heat at each stage and the lead times between them. Free, no paywall.
Data Revision Tracker: Payrolls, CPI, GDP - Initial Print vs What It Is NowEvery payroll, CPI, retail sales and GDP print since 2015: the number as first reported vs the number today, from the Fed's own vintage archive. See how often the jobs report gets revised down and by how much.
100 Years of US Economic Data: Inflation Since 1913, Rates, Debt, UnemploymentA century of US data on one page - CPI inflation since 1913, the 10-year Treasury since 1925, fed funds, mortgage rates, unemployment, debt-to-GDP and M2 growth - plus average inflation and debt change by president.
Ratio Charts: Gold-to-Silver, Dow-to-Gold, Copper-to-Gold, S&P 500-to-M2Classic market ratio charts - gold/silver, Dow/gold, S&P/gold, copper/gold, oil/natgas, S&P-to-M2 - with recession shading, plus real inflation-adjusted gold, silver and oil prices using official CPI or the Nowflation daily deflator.

Charts

PageWhat it shows
Economic and Interest Rate Charts: GDP, Inflation, Jobs, Yields, Mortgage RatesCharts of the U.S. economy and interest rates from FRED: GDP, inflation, jobs, debt, housing, the fed funds rate, Treasury yields and mortgage rates.

Tools

PageWhat it shows
My Inflation Calculator: Your Personal Inflation Rate vs 3.7% CPI (September 2026) and 3.20% Nowflation Realtime (Oct 17)Reweight the Nowflation CPI Gauge basket (3.46%, Oct 17) to your spending: rent or own, driving, dining, healthcare, tuition, state utilities and gas.
Inflation Calculator: $100 in 2021 Is $128.28 Today (October 2026)$100 in January 2021 costs $128.28 as of October 17, 2026 — 28.3% cumulative inflation on the Nowflation daily index.
Build Your Grocery Cart - What It Costs Today vs Any YearPick real grocery items, set quantities, and see what your exact cart costs today, a year ago and five years ago - your personal food inflation rate from public BLS shelf prices.
2027 Social Security COLA Estimate: 3.6% (updated October 17, 2026)2027 COLA: 3.6%, computed with SSA's CPI-W formula from all three Q3 BLS prints, as of October 17, 2026.
I Bond Rate November 2026 Prediction: 4.08% Variable Rate (2.04% Semiannual)Computed November 2026 I bond inflation rate: 4.08% variable (2.04% semiannual), from CPI-U March 2026→September 2026, as of October 17, 2026.
2027 Tax Brackets Projection: IRS Inflation Adjustment 3.24% (updated October 17, 2026)Projected 2027 federal tax brackets and standard deduction from the chained CPI-U, adjustment 3.24%, as of October 17, 2026.
Inflation Alerts: CPI, PCE and Jobs Release Calendar Feed, RSS and EmailNowflation alerts and feeds: subscribe to the CPI, PCE and jobs release calendar (.ics), the Daily Brief by RSS, the print-day email, or embed the Gauge. No app, no account.
Embed Nowflation — Free Inflation & Macro WidgetsDrop any Nowflation series on your site with one iframe — free, cached, always current.
Nowflation — Open DataNowflation's own inflation numbers as free flat files, plus a directory of every input series with public-data downloads. No key, no rate limit — credit and link back.
Every Data Series We Track - Nowflation Open Directory1,684 public data series behind the Nowflation inflation engine - every input browsable, chartable and downloadable. The opposite of a black box.
Nowflation Methodology: 1,684 Series, 26 Sources, Base January 2018 = 100How Nowflation Realtime and the CPI Gauge are built: 21 CPI components, 1,684 public series from 26 sources. Method changes logged on /corrections.
Nowflation Guide — How to Use the Site, and Every Term DefinedWhat Nowflation is, how to get everything out of it in five minutes — the gauge, the gap, the forecast and scoreboard, the macro trackers, the calculators — and a plain-English glossary of every term the site uses.
Inflation Glossary: Nowcast, Supercore, OER, Base Effects, Breakevens DefinedPlain-English definitions of the terms behind inflation numbers: nowcast, supercore, owners' equivalent rent, all-tenant rent, base effects and breakevens.
Nowflation Corrections Log (October 2026): Every Published Number We Changed, DatedEvery correction to a published Nowflation number, dated: what was shown, what it became and where. Method changes and status checks included.
About Nowflation — Who Builds This, and WhyWho builds Nowflation and why: a real-time US inflation gauge with public methodology, open data, and forecasts graded after every CPI print. Built by Steven Fiorillo, Fiorillo Media.
Contact Nowflation — Corrections, Questions, PressContact Nowflation for corrections, data questions, or press. Every figure traces to a public source series — errors get fixed and logged in the changelog.
Privacy Policy — NowflationHow nowflation.com handles data: a static site with no accounts and no personal-data collection, plus full disclosure of advertising cookies and your choices.
Nowflation Terms of Use: Open Data License, No Warranty, Not Investment AdviceThe terms for using nowflation.com: open data free with attribution and a link back; third-party public sources, no warranty; nothing here is investment advice.
Every Page on Nowflation: 95 Pages, One Line EachAll 95 Nowflation pages, one line each, grouped like the top nav, plus the generated series, country, commodity, metro, print-day and brief pages.

More

PageWhat it shows
Why Inflation Moved Today — The Daily Drivers, In Percentage PointsWhat moved US inflation today, input by input: the day's change in the Nowflation Realtime reading attributed to the prices that actually refreshed, with a contribution waterfall, the full basket composition and what is live versus held.
Nowflation for Journalists and Publishers — Data, Charts and CitationPress resources for Nowflation: today's daily US inflation readings with their timestamps, the graded forecast record, publication-ready PNG charts, downloadable data, the methodology and how to cite the series.
Nowflation Realtime: 3.20% US Inflation Today From Live Market PricesNowflation Realtime reads 3.20% YoY as of Oct 17. 39.7% of the basket is priced live; average input age 16.5 days vs 177 for the CPI Gauge.

Generated pages

FamilyPagesIndex
Series directory — every public series with its chart, CSV and JSON1,684 under /series/indicators
CPI print-day pages — one per print, graded after the release13 under /cpi/analysis
The Daily Brief archive — one per publish day; briefs older than 30 days are kept but not indexed60 under /brief/brief
Economic articles — original writing10 under /articles/articles
Countries208 under /country/countries
Commodities42 under /commodity/commodities
Metros50 under /metro/metros
Charts — the economy and interest rates, from FRED208 under /charts/charts

Zillow data: Data Provided by Zillow Group.