The gap is -2.49pp. It is not an error — it is the method. The BLS measures shelter with a 12-14 month survey lag; Nowflation prices new leases and current mortgage costs today. Our gauge uses daily market prices; the CPI is a monthly survey published two weeks late. The gauge correlates 0.9271 with official CPI 2 months ahead — the gauge leads, the official number follows.
| Component | Ours YoY | BLS YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Shelter: Rent | +0.8% | +2.9% |
| Electricity | +8.4% | +5.9% |
| Utility Gas | -5.6% | +3.0% |
Both numbers are true; they answer different questions. Every source is public, the methodology is versioned, and every forecast is graded after each print.
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