The Inflation Pipeline — watch prices move from futures to your CPI

Prices flow downstream in stages: traded futures lead the shelf by 3–9 months, producer and freight costs by 2–6, wholesale and farm-gate by 1–3, live shelf prices move daily, and the official CPI — a survey of the shelf published two weeks after month end — arrives last (shelter takes about a year). The Nowflation gauge (3.45%) reads the middle of the pipe in real time; official CPI (3.7%) reads the bottom. When the top of this page cools before the bottom, that is the gap — and the forecast.

Live readings by stage

Stage 1 — RBOB gasoline futures: $3.24/gal (2026-10-16, +78.6% YoY)
Stage 1 — Henry Hub natural gas: $3.22/MMBtu (2026-10-14, +13.8% YoY)
Stage 2 — Producer prices (final demand): 159.8 (2026-09-01, +6.3% YoY)
Stage 2 — Import prices: 152.2 (2026-09-01, +8.1% YoY)
Stage 2 — Supply-chain pressure (GSCPI): 1.28 σ (2026-09-01, +1.32 pts vs a year ago)
Stage 3 — Used-vehicle wholesale (Manheim): 205.9 (2026-09-01, -0.5% YoY)
Stage 3 — Farm-gate eggs: $1.03/doz (2026-08-01, -54.6% YoY)
Stage 4 — Pump price (AAA): $4.3/gal (2026-10-18)
Stage 4 — Market rent (ZORI): $1,932 (2026-09-30, +2.9% YoY)
Stage 5 — Headline CPI index: 336.9 (2026-09-01, +3.7% YoY)

Lead times are the empirical pass-through lags the Nowflation forecast model uses. Sources: FMP futures, FRED, EIA, USDA, Zillow, AAA, Manheim, the NY Fed and Freightos (freight data courtesy of the Freightos Terminal), each cited on its page and shown under its owner's terms; the public-data series (government statistics) download as CSV on their pages.

Every stage, with its latest reading

Each stage below lists the series the page charts for it, its latest value, and the year-over-year change; the stage chip on the page is the median of those changes, so one wild series cannot skew a stage. Lead times are the empirical pass-through lags the forecast model uses — fuel in weeks, food one to four months, wholesale vehicles one to three months, market rents about a year into CPI shelter.

1 — Futures & global prices (leads the shelf by 3–9 months)

Series	Latest	As of	Year over year
RBOB gasoline futures	$3.24/gal	October 16, 2026	+78.6%
Brent crude	$110/bbl	October 16, 2026	+79.9%
Henry Hub natural gas	$3.22/MMBtu	October 14, 2026	+13.8%
Wheat futures	704¢/bu	October 16, 2026	+44.0%
Corn futures	474¢/bu	October 16, 2026	+12.4%
Live cattle futures	228¢/lb	October 16, 2026	-8.5%

2 — Producer & freight costs (leads by 2–6 months)

Series	Latest	As of	Year over year
Producer prices (final demand)	159.8	September 2026	+6.3%
Producer prices (all commodities)	295.7	September 2026	+12.8%
Import prices	152.2	September 2026	+8.1%
Supply-chain pressure (GSCPI)	1.28σ	September 2026	+1.32σ
Container freight (FBX)	$3,357/FEU	October 16, 2026	—

3 — Wholesale & farm gate (leads by 1–3 months)

Series	Latest	As of	Year over year
Used vehicles wholesale (Manheim)	205.9	September 2026	-0.5%
Farm-gate eggs	$1.03/doz	August 2026	-54.6%
Farm-gate milk	$19.8/cwt	August 2026	-5.3%
Farm-gate cattle	$231/cwt	August 2026	-2.1%

4 — The shelf, today (real time — what the gauge reads)

Series	Latest	As of	Year over year
Pump price (AAA national)	$4.30/gal	October 18, 2026	—
Eggs, retail dozen	$2.27	September 2026	-34.9%
Milk, retail gallon	$4.11	September 2026	-0.6%
Market rent (new leases, ZORI)	$1,932/mo	September 2026	+2.9%
New-vehicle transaction price	$49,855	July 2026	+2.1%

5 — The official prints (lags the shelf by weeks–months (shelter ~a year))

Series	Latest	As of	Year over year
Headline CPI	336.9	September 2026	+3.7%
Core CPI	339.3	September 2026	+2.6%
CPI shelter	432.1	September 2026	+3.2%
CPI food	350.9	September 2026	+2.5%
CPI energy	341.6	September 2026	+20.4%

What is moving through the pipe now

In the Gauge on October 18, 2026 the largest positive contributions to the 3.45% headline come from Motor Fuel (2.9% of the basket at 40.16%, +129 bps), Shelter: Owned (26.2% of the basket at 1.97%, the all-tenant rent index the Gauge prices this weight on, +52 bps), Food Away (5.4% of the basket at 3.46%, +19 bps), Transportation Services (6.3% of the basket at 2.77%, +18 bps); pulling the other way: Used Vehicles (-0.53%, -1 bps). Upstream of groceries, the food-futures composite runs 7.46% year over year against 2.48% for CPI food — a spread the shelf usually closes within two quarters.

The pass-through mechanics the forecast model is using

Fuel: wholesale gasoline pass-through the pump has not yet absorbed (2-wk forward + 30-day gap) — reading -8.8%: 2-wk pump forward -37.8c (-8.8%) in month 1, from the EIA New York Harbor conventional gasoline spot price through 2026-10-14 (the same forward as the fuel panel); 30-day gap: 0.85 × that price's -35.1c vs pump -17c → -12.8c unabsorbed, 0% beyond the forward spread over months 1-2; flat after month 2 (no deferred RBOB contracts held). No trailing momentum.
New-lease rents (ZORI + Apartment List, 6mo median) — reading 0.33%/mo: drives both shelter variants, decaying
Ag futures composite (8 contracts, 3mo) — reading 3.7%: 15% farm-share pass-through to food-at-home over 4 months
Henry Hub natgas (3mo) — reading -9.6%: leaks into regulated utility rates, months 2-6
Manheim used wholesale (3mo) — reading -3.3%: 70% retail pass-through over 3 months
KBB new-vehicle ATP (3mo trend) — reading 0.19%/mo: new-vehicle path
Atlanta Fed wage growth — reading 3.9%: anchors food-away/services stickiness
Ex-energy pipeline (PPI+imports+GSCPI, half caps) — reading 0.12pp/yr: small tilt on goods components only

These are the stage-to-stage transmissions, stated as the model applies them (nowflation_forecast_v2.1_component, as of October 18, 2026); the 12-month path they produce is on the forecast page with its uncertainty band.

How to read the page

Prices flow left to right. When the top stages cool while the bottom is still hot, the official number is about to follow — that gap is where the Gauge (3.45%) sits relative to the CPI (3.7%) and where the forecast comes from; when the top heats while the bottom is cool, the CPI has not yet felt what is coming. Shelter is the slowest pipe: a new-lease rent set today reaches the CPI rent index over roughly a year as the BLS panel rotates, which is why the all-tenant rent index is the Gauge's largest divergence from the print. Colors on the page use the site-wide heat scale (blue deflation, amber near target, red hot). Sources: exchange futures via the market feed, FRED, EIA, USDA, BLS, Zillow, AAA, Manheim and Cox, the New York Fed and Freightos (freight data courtesy of the Freightos Terminal); the public-data series (government statistics) download as CSV from their own pages.

Terms on this page

All-tenant rent index: The Nowflation CPI Gauge's shelter measure: new-lease rents from Zillow and Apartment List averaged over the trailing 48 months of leases with weights that decay at the lease-turnover rate, so it reflects what the whole renting population pays this month rather than only the marginal tenant signing a lease. The Gauge uses it as measured on both the rent and the owners'-equivalent weight; its lead over the official rent index is tested separately.
Pass-through lag: The time between a price change at one stage and its appearance at the next — measured, not assumed, from the historical series.
Producer price index (PPI): BLS prices received by domestic producers; "final demand" covers goods and services sold for personal consumption, capital investment, government and export.
Supply-chain pressure index: The New York Fed's composite of shipping costs, delivery times and backlogs, in standard deviations from its average.

Zillow data: Data Provided by Zillow Group.