Heating a typical US home this winter is projected to cost $902 for the October–March season, -2.5% vs last winter's $925 (index 97.5, last winter = 100). By fuel: natural gas $670 (-10.8% vs $751, 50 Mcf); electricity $909 (+2.6% vs $886, 5,000 kWh); heating oil $2,188 (+11.9% vs $1,955, 500 gal); propane $1,993 (-3.2% vs $2,059, 800 gal).
| Fuel | Usage (season) | Last winter 2025-26 | This winter 2026-27 (projected) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | 50 Mcf | $751 | $670 | -10.8% |
| Electricity | 5,000 kWh | $886 | $909 | +2.6% |
| Heating oil | 500 gal | $1,955 | $2,188 | +11.9% |
| Propane | 800 gal | $2,059 | $1,993 | -3.2% |
Forward signals: Henry Hub spot $2.7/MMBtu (2026-08-25, -2.2% YoY); EIA's STEO path averages $3.38 over this winter vs $4.27 last winter. Lower-48 gas in storage: 3,184 Bcf on 2026-08-21, +5.0% vs the 5-year average for the week. CPI tie-in (2026-07): utility piped gas +4.3% YoY, electricity +4.2%, fuel oil +39.1%.
Method: Cost of a winter = Σ over Oct–Mar of (month share of the season's heating load × seasonal usage × that month's residential price). Prices: EIA monthly residential natural gas ($/Mcf) and electricity (¢/kWh) where published; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook monthly price paths (NGRCUUS, ESRCUUS, D2RCAUS, PRRCAUS — history plus forecast, revised each STEO release) for heating oil, propane and every month not yet published. Composite = fuel costs weighted by main-heating-fuel shares of US homes. State bills scale the national path by the state's own price ratio last winter. Henry Hub path = STEO NGHHUUS; storage band = lower-48 working gas vs the same week of the prior five years. Seasonal usage follows the round-number conventions of the EIA Winter Fuels Outlook for an Oct–Mar season (natural gas ~50 Mcf, heating oil ~500 gal, propane ~800 gal, electric heat ~5,000 kWh of heating load). Monthly usage follows a normal winter's heating-degree-day profile. Fuel shares of US homes are from EIA RECS 2020. All three are assumptions, adjustable on the page. Natural gas and electricity bills for all 50 states and DC are on the page. Updated weekly through the season by the Nowflation engine.
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