Nowflation Realtime reads 3.2% year over year as of 2026-10-17, +0.019pp on the day and +0.053pp on the week. The day's change is the sum of the inputs that refreshed. Shelter: Owners' equivalent rent was the biggest upward driver at +0.030pp. Motor fuel pulled the other way by -0.020pp. Only inputs that refreshed can move the rate; every other component holds its last reading and contributes to the level without moving it.
| Input | Effect on the rate | Basket weight |
|---|---|---|
| Shelter: Owners' equivalent rent | +0.030pp | 26.2% |
| Motor fuel | -0.020pp | 2.9% |
| Shelter: Rent | +0.009pp | 7.84% |
| Total | +0.020pp | residual +0.001pp |
Composition, not movement: every component in the basket with its weight and its own year-over-year rate. A heavy component sits high in this list even on a day it did not move.
| Component | Weight | Nowflation Realtime YoY | Input |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motor fuel | 2.9% | 40.48% | live |
| Shelter: Owners' equivalent rent | 26.2% | 1.22% | live |
| Food away from home | 5.37% | 3.46% | held |
| Transportation services | 6.31% | 2.77% | held |
| Food at home | 8.32% | 1.77% | held |
| Recreation | 5.14% | 2.82% | held |
| Education and communication | 5.85% | 2.32% | held |
| Medical care | 8.42% | 1.5% | held |
| Electricity | 2.49% | 4.37% | held |
| Shelter: Rent | 7.84% | 1.22% | live |
| Personal care | 2.46% | 3.72% | held |
| Apparel | 2.37% | 3.37% | held |
| Household furnishings and operations | 4.3% | 1.56% | held |
| Lodging away from home | 1.29% | 4.38% | held |
| Water, sewer and trash | 1.14% | 4.84% | held |
| Utility gas | 0.77% | 4.97% | held |
| Tobacco | 0.45% | 6.43% | held |
| Other (residual, core CPI proxy) | 0.94% | 2.57% | held |
| New vehicles | 3.84% | 0.61% | held |
| Used vehicles | 2.76% | -0.53% | live |
| Alcoholic beverages | 0.84% | 1.42% | held |
Nowflation Realtime runs below official CPI by 0.50pp: 3.20% against 3.7% for September 2026. Held at the official September 2026 subindexes with no live price, the same construction reads 3.52%, 0.18pp below CPI; that difference is construction, not market prices. Live market prices move it 0.32pp down from there: new-lease rents −0.65pp and pump prices +0.31pp, with smaller effects from the rest.
The year-over-year rate moves for two reasons, and this page separates them. A live input can change: the pump price, a new month of rents or used-car values. Or the comparison point can change: daily inputs such as the pump price are compared with the same day a year earlier, and monthly inputs and held official subindexes with the same month a year earlier, so a large move twelve months ago drops out of the window and shifts the rate even when nothing moved today. That second effect, the base effect, is why the rate can tick up on a quiet day.
Each component's share of the day's change is its exact contribution under the December chain the headline uses, as the BLS weights the CPI: its relative importance times its price change since December, so a component whose price has moved far since December carries more than its relative importance. The largest are listed by name and the rest summed on one line, so the parts add up to the headline change; what is left is rounding. Held components only step when the BLS publishes a new month, on CPI release day; between releases the day-to-day movement comes from the live inputs alone.
For the reading itself and what feeds it, see Nowflation Realtime on the Realtime page; for how today compares with what CPI will print, the forecast; for every component's own history, the Gauge, exposed.