Inflation analysis and CPI print-day reports

Print-day breakdowns of every CPI release: the actual against every graded forecaster, the components that drove it, and what the daily gauge saw coming. Written from the engine's own graded database on release morning, reviewed and published by Steven Fiorillo the same day. Latest report:

August CPI Holds at 3.4% as Gasoline Keeps Energy Hot

2026-08 print day · Drafted by the Nowflation engine, reviewed before publication

Corrected October 4, 2026. This report was drafted by the Nowflation engine on September 11, 2026 and first published in the first person; it now reads in the third person. It said "I called 3.4%": the Nowflation Forecast locked the evening before the release was 3.34%, fourth of five. It said Nowflation "beat the field by a wide margin over time" across 88 prints: that count matched no graded record, and on the live record the Nowflation Forecast's average miss is 0.248 points over two graded calls, against 0.086 for the Street, 0.104 for the Cleveland Fed and 0.132 for Kalshi. The CPI Gauge figures it quoted came from a method the Gauge no longer uses (3.264% then, 3.25% on the current method), and the pace, component and home-affordability figures from that period have been removed. The energy reading is the hottest since May, not June. Internal names were replaced with the public ones. The graded record is on the scoreboard, and every correction is listed in the corrections log.

Headline CPI printed 3.4% year-over-year for August, dead-on with Wall Street consensus and flat against July's 3.4%. Core came in at 2.4%, down a tick from 2.5% — the softening story is in services and shelter, not energy. This was a clean, boring print by the numbers. It will not stay boring.

The Print vs. The Setup

Consensus called 3.4% and the BLS delivered 3.4%: surprise, zero. The Nowflation Forecast had been locked at 3.34% the evening before. But "no surprise" at the headline masks real movement underneath — energy YoY jumped to 16.3% from 14.7% prior, the hottest energy reading since May, while shelter cooled to 3.0% from 3.2% and food eased to 2.7% from 3.0%. Core services ex-energy held flat at 3.0%. The disinflation story is intact everywhere except the gas pump.

What the Daily Gauge Showed

Going into the release, the Nowflation CPI Gauge read 3.25% year over year on its current method (September 10), 0.15 percentage points below the 3.4% print.

The Scoreboard

Every forecaster clustered tight this month, but the ranking still matters:

The Street wins the print. The Nowflation Forecast undershot by 6 basis points and ranked fourth of five; the in-house model was last.

Next Month Is Where This Gets Interesting

The September print, due October 14, is where forecasters are splitting hard. Street consensus and Kalshi are both pricing a jump to roughly 3.70-3.72%. The Cleveland Fed is barely moving, at 3.41%. The Nowflation Forecast stood in between at 3.468% on September 11. That is not a rounding-error disagreement: a spread of 30 basis points separates the Street and Kalshi from the Cleveland Fed's model, with the Nowflation Forecast between them. Someone will be well off next month.

The Fuel Forward Read

Pump prices stood at $4.295 on September 11. Nowflation's two-week forward model, built from the EIA's New York Harbor spot gasoline price with a 0.85 pass-through, pointed to $4.225, a 7-cent decline: the spot price's 5-day average of $3.2354 sat well below its prior 15-day average of $3.3178. If that held, gasoline's pull on the September and October prints would start to fade.

The September forecast updates every morning until it locks the evening before the October 14 release.

Earlier reports

• July CPI Cools to 3.4%, Exactly as the Street Expected (2026-07 print day · Drafted by the Nowflation engine, reviewed before publication)
• June CPI Cools to 3.5%, Below Every Forecast (2026-06 print day · Drafted by the Nowflation engine, reviewed before publication)
• May CPI Runs Hot at 4.2% as Energy Surges (2026-05 print day · Drafted by the Nowflation engine, reviewed before publication)

Print-day pages: one permanent page per CPI release

Each CPI print month has its own page with every forecaster's call, the printed number and the miss sizes, the pre-registration receipt and how the Gauge stepped through the release. 13 pages, newest first:

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