Before each CPI print, four forecasts go on the record: Nowflation, the Cleveland Fed, Street consensus, and Kalshi prediction markets. When the print lands, all four are graded — including ours. The vintage-true backtest covers 86 prints (2019-01 to 2026-05) with a 0.161pp mean absolute error vs 0.329pp for a naive baseline.
| Actual | street_consensus | fmc | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05 | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.255% |
| 2026-04 | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.686% |
| 2026-03 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.34% |
| 2026-02 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.49% |
| 2026-01 | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.422% |
| 2025-12 | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.44% |
| 2025-11 | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.841% |
| 2025-09 | 3% | 3.1% | 2.888% |
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