The Daily Brief for October 14, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Energy drag persists. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.44% year over year on 2026-10-14 — +0.005pp on the day, −0.027pp on the week, +0.057pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 4.58% annualized over three months and 3.16% over one. Changes are like for like on method v1.5; the published readings moved +0.201pp on the month across the September 28, 2026 switch from v1.4. Official CPI 3.7% (September 2026, released 2026-10-14); gap −0.26pp. About 40% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.
Nowflation Realtime stands at 3.12% year-on-year, down 0.01pp on the day and down 0.04pp on the week, with fuel subtracting 0.008pp from the daily move even as fuel prices run 38.45% higher year-on-year. The Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.44% year-on-year, up 0.005pp on the day and up 0.052pp on the month, like for like, though down 0.027pp on the week, like for like. Top CPI Gauge drivers were Transportation Services (3.69bps), Recreation and Lodging Away (2.62bps each). The Gauge sits 0.26pp below the official September print of 3.7% year-on-year. For the October release, the Nowflation Forecast stands at 3.9% (3.869% unrounded); no Street consensus is available for comparison. The in-house model reads 3.985%. Forward fuel prices point to New York Harbor spot gasoline easing to 4.270 dollars from 4.333 dollars, a 6.3 cent decline.
| Forecaster | Headline CPI YoY call |
|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble; the call as it stood that day, locked into a receipt the evening before the release) | 3.87% |
| Nowflation model (in-house) | 3.98% |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 3.78% |
| Prior print | 3.7% |
the Gauge runs −0.26pp versus the September 2026 print of 3.7% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is our call for what the BLS will print, locked into a receipt the evening before the release and graded after it (October 2026 preview and grading).
The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the ensemble call for the next CPI release, the current call until it is locked into a receipt the evening before the release, then graded after it; the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire headline and paragraph are written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record). Before a paragraph is stored, every number in it is checked against those figures (since September 15, 2026) and its wording against the numbers (since October 2, 2026); a deterministic template replaces it when the API is unavailable or a check fails. Archived paragraphs are shown as written, including those stored before the current checks. The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.
| Day | Gauge YoY | On the day | Gap vs the print |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | 3.44% | −0.003pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-10-18 | 3.45% | −0.010pp | −0.25pp |
| 2026-10-17 | 3.46% | −0.020pp | −0.24pp |
| 2026-10-16 | 3.48% | −0.024pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-10-15 | 3.50% | +0.063pp | −0.20pp |
| 2026-10-14 | 3.44% | +0.005pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-10-13 | 3.43% | −0.014pp | +0.03pp |
| 2026-10-12 | 3.45% | −0.004pp | +0.05pp |
| 2026-10-11 | 3.45% | −0.008pp | +0.05pp |
| 2026-10-10 | 3.46% | −0.005pp | +0.06pp |
| 2026-10-09 | 3.46% | +0.010pp | +0.06pp |
| 2026-10-08 | 3.45% | −0.011pp | +0.05pp |
| 2026-10-07 | 3.46% | −0.028pp | +0.06pp |
| 2026-10-06 | 3.49% | +0.003pp | +0.09pp |
| 2026-10-05 | 3.49% | −0.004pp | +0.09pp |
| 2026-10-04 | 3.49% | −0.011pp | +0.09pp |
| 2026-10-03 | 3.50% | −0.017pp | +0.10pp |
| 2026-10-02 | 3.52% | −0.017pp | +0.12pp |
| 2026-10-01 | 3.54% | +0.032pp | +0.14pp |
| 2026-09-30 | 3.51% | −0.022pp | +0.11pp |
| 2026-09-29 | 3.53% | −0.022pp | +0.13pp |
| 2026-09-28 | 3.55% | +0.002pp | +0.15pp (method v1.5 from this day, v1.4 before it; the day change is like for like, the published reading moved +0.181pp) |
| 2026-09-27 | 3.37% | −0.007pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-26 | 3.38% | −0.003pp | −0.02pp |
| 2026-09-25 | 3.38% | +0.008pp | −0.02pp |
| 2026-09-24 | 3.37% | +0.002pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-23 | 3.37% | −0.001pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-22 | 3.37% | −0.002pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-21 | 3.37% | +0.001pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-20 | 3.37% | +0.001pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-19 | 3.37% | +0.006pp | −0.03pp |
| 2026-09-18 | 3.36% | +0.027pp | −0.04pp |
| 2026-09-17 | 3.34% | +0.084pp | −0.06pp |
| 2026-09-16 | 3.25% | +0.007pp | −0.15pp |
| 2026-09-15 | 3.25% | +0.010pp | −0.15pp |
| 2026-09-14 | 3.24% | +0.003pp | −0.16pp |
| 2026-09-13 | 3.23% | +0.003pp | −0.17pp |
| 2026-09-12 | 3.23% | −0.007pp | −0.17pp |
| 2026-09-11 | 3.24% | −0.011pp | −0.16pp |
| 2026-09-10 | 3.25% | +0.033pp | −0.15pp |
| 2026-09-09 | 3.22% | +0.064pp | −0.18pp |
| 2026-09-08 | 3.15% | +0.001pp | −0.25pp |
| 2026-09-07 | 3.15% | −0.023pp | −0.25pp |
| 2026-09-06 | 3.17% | +0.001pp | −0.23pp |
| 2026-09-05 | 3.17% | −0.001pp | −0.23pp |
| 2026-09-04 | 3.17% | +0.003pp | −0.23pp |
| 2026-09-03 | 3.17% | −0.007pp | −0.23pp |
| 2026-09-02 | 3.18% | +0.022pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-09-01 | 3.16% | +0.013pp | −0.24pp |
| 2026-08-31 | 3.14% | +0.002pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-08-30 | 3.14% | −0.003pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-08-29 | 3.14% | −0.007pp | −0.26pp |
| 2026-08-28 | 3.15% | −0.008pp | −0.25pp |
| 2026-08-27 | 3.16% | −0.022pp | −0.24pp |
| 2026-08-26 | 3.18% | +0.004pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-25 | 3.18% | −0.002pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-24 | 3.18% | 0.000pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-23 | 3.18% | −0.003pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-22 | 3.18% | −0.006pp | −0.22pp |
| 2026-08-21 | 3.19% | +0.004pp | −0.21pp |