Nowflation Realtime holds at 3.14% year-on-year as fuel drags -0.003pp on the day

The Daily Brief for October 12, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Energy drag persists. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.45% year over year on 2026-10-12 — −0.004pp on the day, −0.043pp on the week, +0.073pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 3.68% annualized over three months and 1.68% over one. Changes are like for like on method v1.5; the published readings moved +0.216pp on the month across the September 28, 2026 switch from v1.4. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap +0.05pp. About 40% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.45% YoY, −0.004pp on the day and −0.043pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 3.68% annualized over three months, 1.68% over one.
• Motor Fuel −0.07% on the day (−0.23% on the week, 39.15% YoY) — −0.20bps to the Gauge.
• Gauge runs +0.05pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 2 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.60% vs Street 3.6%, Cleveland Fed 3.60%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime was unchanged on the day at 3.14% year-on-year, down 0.02pp on the week, with fuel the sole named mover, contributing -0.003pp as pump prices continue to soften. The Nowflation CPI Gauge stood at 3.45% year-on-year, down 0.004pp on the day and down 0.043pp on the week, like for like, though up 0.067pp on the month, like for like. Motor Fuel was the leading CPI Gauge driver, contributing -0.2bps on the day, with year-on-year fuel inflation still elevated at 39.15%. The Gauge sits 0.05pp above the official August print of 3.4% year-on-year, consistent with firmer momentum heading into the September release. The Nowflation Forecast for September is 3.6% (3.60% unrounded), below the Street consensus of 3.7%. Forward gasoline pricing points lower, with New York Harbor spot gasoline down 6.3 cents over two weeks to 4.292 dollars.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.7%)

Our call sits −0.00pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs +0.05pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. Graded: the call locked in its receipt (October 13, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET) was 3.56%, a miss of −0.14pp; the call as it stood this day was 3.60%. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is our call for what the BLS will print, locked into a receipt the evening before the release and graded after it (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; it prices owners' equivalent rent on the same index (2.02% YoY); official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.355 (AAA daily, 2026-10-12), −1.0¢ on the week; New York Harbor spot gasoline (EIA) through 2026-10-12 implies $4.019 in two weeks (−33.6¢).
• Truflation: 2.90% (2026-10-12); the Gauge is +0.54pp against it and Truflation is −0.50pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: October 2026 payrolls land November 6, 2026 (25 days): Nowflation model +108K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the ensemble call for the next CPI release, the current call until it is locked into a receipt the evening before the release, then graded after it; the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire headline and paragraph are written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record). Before a paragraph is stored, every number in it is checked against those figures (since September 15, 2026) and its wording against the numbers (since October 2, 2026); a deterministic template replaces it when the API is unavailable or a check fails. Archived paragraphs are shown as written, including those stored before the current checks. The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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