Nowflation Realtime fell to 3.14% year-on-year, dragged down by fuel's -0.008pp contribution on the day.

The Daily Brief for October 11, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led cooling. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.45% year over year on 2026-10-11 — −0.008pp on the day, −0.043pp on the week, +0.092pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 3.84% annualized over three months and 1.88% over one. Changes are like for like on method v1.5; the published readings moved +0.213pp on the month across the September 28, 2026 switch from v1.4. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap +0.05pp. About 40% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.45% YoY, −0.008pp on the day and −0.043pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 3.84% annualized over three months, 1.88% over one.
• Motor Fuel −0.18% on the day (−0.25% on the week, 39.25% YoY) — −0.53bps to the Gauge.
• Gauge runs +0.05pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 3 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.56% vs Street 3.6%, Cleveland Fed 3.60%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime stands at 3.14% year-on-year, down 0.01pp on the day and down 0.02pp on the week, with fuel the primary drag, contributing -0.008pp to the daily move as pump prices ease. The Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.45% year-on-year, down 0.008pp on the day and down 0.043pp on the week, like for like, though up 0.087pp on the month, like for like. Motor Fuel remains the dominant CPI Gauge driver, down 0.18% on the day and contributing -0.53bps, with year-on-year fuel inflation still elevated at 39.25%. The Gauge sits 0.05pp above the official August reading of 3.4%. The Nowflation Forecast for September stands at 3.6% (3.56% unrounded), below the Street's 3.6% consensus at the unrounded level. The in-house model reads 3.46%. Forward gasoline pricing from New York Harbor spot points to pump prices near 4.295 dollars in two weeks, down 6.3 cents from current levels.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.7%)

Our call sits −0.04pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs +0.05pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. Graded: the call locked in its receipt (October 13, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET) was 3.56%, a miss of −0.14pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is our call for what the BLS will print, locked into a receipt the evening before the release and graded after it (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; it prices owners' equivalent rent on the same index (2.02% YoY); official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.358 (AAA daily, 2026-10-11), −1.1¢ on the week; New York Harbor spot gasoline (EIA) through 2026-10-09 implies $4.068 in two weeks (−29.0¢).
• Truflation: 2.91% (2026-10-11); the Gauge is +0.55pp against it and Truflation is −0.49pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: October 2026 payrolls land November 6, 2026 (26 days): Nowflation model +108K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the ensemble call for the next CPI release, the current call until it is locked into a receipt the evening before the release, then graded after it; the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire headline and paragraph are written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record). Before a paragraph is stored, every number in it is checked against those figures (since September 15, 2026) and its wording against the numbers (since October 2, 2026); a deterministic template replaces it when the API is unavailable or a check fails. Archived paragraphs are shown as written, including those stored before the current checks. The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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