Economy Heat Check: Mixed / neutral (+5 on a scale of −100 to +100)

The Heat Check reads 21 indicators across 5 groups — prices, the real economy, the price pipeline, housing, and money and expectations — and asks one question: is the US economy heating up or cooling down right now? As of 2026-10 the composite score is +5, which reads as mixed / neutral. rising rates choking housing demand (cooling); long rates rising — market sees heat; paychecks accelerating — services inflation fuel

A score near zero means the signals offset each other; a score above +30 means most indicators are running hotter than their own history, and below −30 means most are cooling. The hottest reading today is 10yr Treasury yield (10yr yield +0.62pp over 3 months); the coolest is Mortgage rates (30yr rate +0.82pp over 3 months).

Prices Now: -3.3 (weight 25%)

Core CPI momentum — neutral: core CPI YoY moved -0.03pp in 3 months (2026-09). Underlying core inflation is easing.
CPI Gauge momentum — neutral: 0.01pp change in gauge YoY over 3 months (like for like on method v1.5) (2026-10). Daily price gauge is re-accelerating.

Pipeline: +2.2 (weight 20%)

Ag futures composite — cooling: food futures -3.2% over 3 months (2026-10). Grocery input costs falling.
Producer prices (PPI) — heating: PPI YoY moved 0.76pp in 3 months (2026-09). Producer costs accelerating upstream of CPI.
Import prices — heating: import price YoY moved 1.35pp in 3 months (2026-09). Imported inflation building.
Dollar index — neutral: broad dollar 0.6% over 3 months (2026-10). Stronger dollar suppresses import prices (cooling).
Wholesale gasoline (RBOB) — neutral: RBOB futures 4% over 2 months (2026-10). Wholesale gas rising — hits pumps in 2-4 weeks.
Supply chain pressure (GSCPI) — neutral: GSCPI +0.08σ over 3 months (2026-09). Global supply chains tightening — goods inflation pipeline building.

Real Economy: +7.9 (weight 25%)

Wage growth (Atlanta Fed) — heating: median wage growth moved 0.3pp in 3 months (2026-09). Paychecks accelerating — services inflation fuel.
Industrial production — heating: industrial output 1% over 3 months (2026-09). Factories busy.
Jobless claims — neutral: initial claims -2.3% over 3 months (2026-10). Layoffs falling — labor market tight.
Payroll growth — neutral: payrolls 0.1% over 3 months (2026-09). Hiring steady.
Retail sales — neutral: retail sales 1.7% over 3 months (2026-09). Consumers still spending.
Unemployment rate — neutral: unemployment +0pp over 3 months (2026-09). Essentially unchanged over the window.
Posted wages (Indeed) — neutral: posted-wage YoY moved -0.04pp in 3 months (2026-08). Job-posting wages decelerating (leads official wages).

Housing: -11.2 (weight 15%)

Mortgage rates — cooling: 30yr rate +0.82pp over 3 months (2026-10). Rising rates choking housing demand (cooling).
Market rents (ZORI) — heating: rent YoY moved 0.72pp in 3 months (2026-09). New-lease rents re-accelerating.
Home prices (Case-Shiller) — heating: home price YoY moved 0.93pp in 3 months (2026-07). Home price appreciation accelerating.

Money & Expectations: +33.8 (weight 15%)

10yr Treasury yield — heating: 10yr yield +0.62pp over 3 months (2026-10). Long rates rising — market sees heat.
Consumer expectations (NY Fed SCE) — heating: 1yr expected inflation moved +0.23pp in 3 months (2026-09). Households bracing for MORE inflation — expectations un-anchoring.
5yr inflation breakeven — heating: 5yr breakeven +0.1pp over 3 months (2026-10). Bond market pricing MORE future inflation.

How the score is built

Each indicator is a momentum transform (mostly 3-month change) standardized against its own 2017-now history (z-score, clamped ±2.5), signed so positive = heating, then averaged within groups and combined with fixed weights (Prices 25%, Real Economy 25%, Pipeline 20%, Housing 15%, Money & Expectations 15%). Score = weighted mean z × 50, clamped ±100. No model, no fitting — pure standardized momentum, fully reproducible from the listed series.

The Heat Check is a description of momentum, not a forecast: it says which way the economy's temperature is moving, not where inflation or growth will land. For the inflation reading itself, see the dashboard; for recession signals, the recession page; for what the Fed is likely to do about it, Fed Watch.

Zillow data: Data Provided by Zillow Group.