August 2026 CPI print day, live: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET

The August 2026 CPI is released Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Nowflation’s standing call is 3.36% (receipt provisional, SHA-256 e35066cec89e6548…) against the Street consensus of 3.4% and a prior print of 3.4%. This page becomes the graded result the morning the number lands. The Nowflation Gauge — a measurement of today, not a call on the print — reads 3.15% as of September 8, 2026.

Headline CPI YoY

ForecasterCallSource
Nowflation Forecast3.36%receipt (provisional)
Nowflation Model3.29%receipt (provisional)
Cleveland Fed3.38%receipt (provisional)
Street consensus3.4%receipt (provisional)
Kalshi market-implied3.38%receipt (provisional)

Core CPI YoY

ForecasterCallSource
Nowflation Forecast2.39%receipt (provisional)
Nowflation Model2.32%receipt (provisional)
Cleveland Fed2.38%receipt (provisional)
Street consensus2.4%receipt (provisional)
Kalshi market-implied2.40%receipt (provisional)

Headline CPI MoM

ForecasterCallSource
Nowflation Forecast0.38%receipt (provisional)
Nowflation Model0.28%receipt (provisional)
Cleveland Fed0.36%receipt (provisional)
Street consensus0.4%receipt (provisional)
Kalshi market-implied0.37%receipt (provisional)

Core CPI MoM

ForecasterCallSource
Nowflation Forecast0.20%receipt (provisional)
Nowflation Model0.14%receipt (provisional)
Cleveland Fed0.20%receipt (provisional)
Street consensus0.2%receipt (provisional)

Pre-registration receipt

Status provisional, written September 8, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET. standing nowcast / ensemble / benchmark values — provisional until the pre-print lock the evening before release. Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.36% (reported 3.4%). SHA-256: e35066cec89e6548dea1f9cb5c7f436c0e77c53059403d10e710f770b2d5b0dc. Receipt JSON · all receipts.

Kalshi ladder

Market-implied mean on September 8, 2026: 3.38%. Settles at 8:30 AM ET on the printed headline YoY (one decimal, as BLS reports it). Implied mean = survival-curve integration of the “above X%” ladder mid-prices at the print’s 0.1pp granularity (engine connectors/kalshi.js).

Method

Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.

Scoreboard · August 2026 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.