The August 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 3.4% year over year on September 11, 2026 (prior 3.4%, Street consensus 3.4%, surprise 0.00pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was 3.34% (receipt locked September 10, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET) — a miss of −0.060pp, 4 of 5. Core CPI 2.4% (consensus 2.4%, prior 2.5%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM 0.4% vs 0.4% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 3.34% | 3.4% | −0.060pp |
| Nowflation Model | 3.23% | 3.4% | −0.171pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 3.38% | 3.4% | −0.020pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.37% | 3.4% | −0.034pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 2.39% | 2.4% | −0.009pp |
| Nowflation Model | 2.26% | 2.4% | −0.141pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 2.38% | 2.4% | −0.020pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.4% | 2.4% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 2.37% | 2.4% | −0.028pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 0.38% | 0.4% | −0.019pp |
| Nowflation Model | 0.23% | 0.4% | −0.172pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 0.36% | 0.4% | −0.040pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 0.37% | 0.4% | −0.034pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (closest) | 0.20% | 0.3% | −0.100pp |
| Nowflation Model | 0.08% | 0.3% | −0.223pp |
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.20% | 0.3% | −0.100pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.2% | 0.3% | −0.100pp |
Status locked (immutable), written September 10, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET. standing nowcast / ensemble / benchmark values at lock time (18:30 ET the evening before release). Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.34% (reported 3.3%). SHA-256: cb56cd01cf2f56eb9969addd07e28ef80808f70633c31409b25e8ea3fcaee690. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
The Gauge read 3.25% on the eve of the print and 3.23% the day after (−0.020pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.15pp to −0.17pp. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Market-implied mean on September 10, 2026: 3.39%. Ladder strikes at or below 3.4% settled YES; strikes above 3.4% settled NO. The market-implied mean on the eve was 3.39%, -0.01pp from the print. Implied mean = survival-curve integration of the “above X%” ladder mid-prices at the print’s 0.1pp granularity (engine connectors/kalshi.js).
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · August 2026 CPI preview, the preview before the print · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.
Released Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.
3.34% headline CPI YoY for August 2026 (error-weighted ensemble); receipt locked before the release, written September 10, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET (receipt JSON).
| Forecaster | Call | Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Model | 3.23% | −0.17pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 3.38% | −0.02pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.4% | 0.00pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.37% | −0.03pp |
August 2026 CPI printed 3.4% YoY on September 11, 2026 (0.00pp vs consensus). Closest: Street consensus. Source: BLS first release.
Nowflation 3.34% vs printed 3.4%: miss −0.06pp.
Related: Scoreboard · The forecast · CPI release dates · Release calendar