The May 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 4.2% year over year on June 10, 2026 (prior 3.8%, Street consensus 4.2%, surprise 0.00pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 2.9% (consensus 2.9%, prior 2.8%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM 0.5% vs 0.5% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 4.18% | 4.2% | −0.020pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 2.82% | 2.9% | −0.077pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.9% | 2.9% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.46% | 0.5% | −0.041pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.23% | 0.2% | +0.026pp |
| Street consensus | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.100pp |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 3.81% on the eve of the print and 3.69% the day after (−0.120pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.39pp to −0.51pp; the CPI Tracker 3.98% → 3.91%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · May 2026 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.