Real GDP growth for the quarter in progress, estimated before the official release: the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow, the St. Louis Fed's news-index nowcast, and the Weekly Economic Index, each updating as source data lands. GDPNow's final-of-quarter read has averaged ~0.77pp absolute error vs the advance estimate since 2011. The growth tracker below it is the record: the nowcast against every official BEA print since Q3 2011 (60 quarters), the smoother real-GDP year-over-year view, and the Chicago Fed's 85-indicator activity index since 1993 with its −0.70 recession threshold.
Growth is the other blade of the scissors next to inflation: 4% CPI with strong growth is an overheating problem; 4% with a stalling nowcast is the stagflation corner. This page pairs with the recession-risk dashboard for that judgment, and with the macro dashboard's hard data — the releases GDPNow actually runs on.
Real GDP is published by the BEA about a month after each quarter ends, then revised twice; a nowcast estimates growth for the quarter in progress by mapping each incoming release (retail sales, trade, inventories, housing, industrial production) onto the GDP accounts. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow currently reads 3.64% annualized for Q3 2026; the St. Louis Fed's economic-news index nowcast reads 2.81%. The last official print was 2.2% (seasonally adjusted annual rate, Q2 2026); measured year over year, real GDP is up 2.2%. The Weekly Economic Index, scaled to GDP growth, was 3.05 in the week of October 10, 2026 — below zero is a contraction pace.
Where the two series part is the nowcast's error, shown rather than hidden. Over the 60 quarters in the payload the final GDPNow reading differs from the BEA print as it stands today (latest vintage, revisions included) by +1.39pp on average; against the advance estimates it was aimed at, the misses are smaller, because later revisions add their own noise. The print itself moves: on the revision tracker the average revision to a first GDP estimate over the last 24 prints is +0.58pp, with 33.3% of them revised down.
| Quarter | GDPNow final | BEA print (latest vintage) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 1.54% | 2.2% | -0.66pp |
| Q1 2026 | 1.24% | 2.5% | -1.26pp |
| Q4 2025 | 4.24% | 0.2% | +4.04pp |
| Q3 2025 | 3.47% | 3.9% | -0.43pp |
| Q2 2025 | 2.90% | 4.0% | -1.10pp |
| Q1 2025 | -2.73% | 0.1% | -2.83pp |
| Q4 2024 | 2.27% | 2.4% | -0.13pp |
| Q3 2024 | 2.79% | 3.2% | -0.41pp |
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines 85 monthly indicators and is standardized so that zero is trend growth; the three-month average is the signal (0.01 for August 2026; the single month -0.04). Readings below −0.70 after an expansion have coincided with recessions; readings above +0.70 two years into an expansion have coincided with rising inflation. Growth is the other blade of the scissors next to inflation. A Gauge at 3.45% and an official CPI at 3.7% with a nowcast near 3.6% is a demand-driven picture the Fed leans against; the same inflation with a nowcast stalling toward zero is the stagflation corner. The recession-risk page carries the trigger rules; the macro dashboard carries the hard data GDPNow actually runs on.