The June 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 3.5% year over year on July 14, 2026 (prior 4.2%, Street consensus 3.8%, surprise −0.30pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was 3.94% (receipt locked July 7, 2026 11:18 AM ET) — a miss of +0.435pp, 4 of 5. Core CPI 2.6% (consensus 2.8%, prior 2.9%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM −0.4% vs −0.1% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (receipt) | 3.94% | 3.5% | +0.435pp |
| Nowflation Model | 4.03% | 3.5% | +0.525pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 3.92% | 3.5% | +0.420pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.8% | 3.5% | +0.300pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.81% | 3.5% | +0.309pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (receipt) | 2.88% | 2.6% | +0.279pp |
| Nowflation Model | 2.87% | 2.6% | +0.272pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 2.85% | 2.6% | +0.250pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.8% | 2.6% | +0.200pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 2.82% | 2.6% | +0.216pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (receipt) | −0.03% | −0.4% | +0.373pp |
| Nowflation Model | 0.03% | −0.4% | +0.433pp |
| Cleveland Fed | −0.06% | −0.4% | +0.340pp |
| Street consensus | −0.1% | −0.4% | +0.300pp |
| Kalshi market-implied (closest) | −0.12% | −0.4% | +0.276pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 0.21% | 0.0% | +0.213pp |
| Nowflation Model | 0.24% | 0.0% | +0.240pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 0.23% | 0.0% | +0.230pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.2% | 0.0% | +0.200pp |
Rows marked (receipt) show the values on the receipt locked before the release and are graded on them, as the live record is. The scoreboard rows frozen at grading read: Nowflation Forecast 3.895% on Headline CPI YoY; Nowflation Forecast 2.821% on Core CPI YoY; Nowflation Forecast −0.082% on Headline CPI MoM.
Status locked (immutable), written July 7, 2026 11:18 AM ET. Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.94% (reported 3.9%). This receipt predates the hashed receipts: it carries no SHA-256 and no outside archive capture, so its only witness is the site’s own record. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
The Gauge read 3.36% on the eve of the print and 3.14% the day after (−0.220pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.14pp to −0.36pp. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Market-implied mean on July 13, 2026: 3.80%. Ladder strikes at or below 3.5% settled YES; strikes above 3.5% settled NO. The market-implied mean on the eve was 3.80%, +0.30pp from the print. Implied mean = survival-curve integration of the “above X%” ladder mid-prices at the print’s 0.1pp granularity (engine connectors/kalshi.js).
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual. For this print the Nowflation rows show the receipt locked before the release, which the live record grades; the rows frozen at grading are named under the table.
Scoreboard · June 2026 CPI preview, the preview before the print · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.
Released Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.
3.94% headline CPI YoY for June 2026 (error-weighted ensemble); receipt locked before the release, written July 7, 2026 11:18 AM ET (receipt JSON).
| Forecaster | Call | Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Model | 4.03% | +0.53pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 3.92% | +0.42pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.8% | +0.30pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.81% | +0.31pp |
June 2026 CPI printed 3.5% YoY on July 14, 2026 (−0.30pp vs consensus). Closest: Street consensus. Source: BLS first release.
Nowflation 3.94% vs printed 3.5%: miss +0.44pp.
Related: Scoreboard · The forecast · CPI release dates · Release calendar