The January 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 2.4% year over year on February 13, 2026 (prior 2.7%, Street consensus 2.5%, surprise −0.10pp). Closest on the headline: Cleveland Fed. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 2.5% (consensus 2.5%, prior 2.6%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM 0.2% vs 0.3% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 2.36% | 2.4% | −0.036pp |
| Street consensus | 2.5% | 2.4% | +0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 2.45% | 2.5% | −0.048pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.14% | 0.2% | −0.065pp |
| Street consensus | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.22% | 0.3% | −0.082pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.000pp |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 2.57% on the eve of the print and 2.55% the day after (−0.020pp), its gap to the printed number moving from +0.17pp to +0.15pp; the CPI Tracker 2.56% → 2.52%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · January 2026 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.