The July 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 3.4% year over year on August 12, 2026 (prior 3.5%, Street consensus 3.4%, surprise 0.00pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was 3.42% — a miss of +0.021pp, 3 of 5. Core CPI 2.5% (consensus 2.5%, prior 2.6%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM 0.1% vs 0.1% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 3.42% | 3.4% | +0.021pp |
| Nowflation Model | 3.46% | 3.4% | +0.060pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 3.42% | 3.4% | +0.020pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.35% | 3.4% | −0.053pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 2.51% | 2.5% | +0.009pp |
| Nowflation Model | 2.52% | 2.5% | +0.016pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 2.52% | 2.5% | +0.020pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.5% | 2.5% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 2.43% | 2.5% | −0.069pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 0.10% | 0.1% | −0.004pp |
| Nowflation Model | 0.10% | 0.1% | +0.004pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 0.09% | 0.1% | −0.010pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 0.09% | 0.1% | −0.014pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 0.20% | 0.2% | +0.004pp |
| Nowflation Model | 0.18% | 0.2% | −0.022pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 0.21% | 0.2% | +0.010pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.000pp |
Status locked (immutable), written September 1, 2026 at 5:23 PM ET. scoreboard rows frozen at grading time (INSERT OR IGNORE — never rewritten by later revisions from any source). Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.42% (reported 3.4%). SHA-256: e454dbe74fc9042c04343f938c15708f04c848c42869ac932a35ff11d4026e82. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
The Gauge read 3.17% on the eve of the print and 3.19% the day after (+0.020pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.23pp to −0.21pp; the CPI Tracker 3.43% → 3.46%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Market-implied mean on August 11, 2026: 3.37%. Ladder strikes at or below 3.4% settled YES; strikes above 3.4% settled NO. The market-implied mean on the eve was 3.37%, -0.03pp from the print. Implied mean = survival-curve integration of the “above X%” ladder mid-prices at the print’s 0.1pp granularity (engine connectors/kalshi.js).
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · July 2026 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.