The BLS releases the October 2026 Consumer Price Index on Tuesday, November 10, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Prior print: 3.7% (2026-09). The Nowflation CPI Forecast is an error-weighted blend of the in-house bottom-up model, the Cleveland Fed nowcast and the Street consensus; Kalshi's market-implied number rides along as a benchmark. This page becomes the graded result the morning the number lands — including our miss, if we miss.
| Forecaster | Headline CPI YoY call |
|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 3.86% |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 3.97% |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 3.77% |
| Street consensus | not posted yet |
| Kalshi market-implied | not posted yet |
Status provisional · written October 19, 2026 at 8:05 AM ET · release 2026-11-10 08:30 ET. Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.86% · SHA-256 4742313baff23dd4…. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Street Consensus | 45 | 0.087pp | — | — | 0.087pp (45) |
| Cleveland Fed | 45 | 0.104pp | — | — | 0.104pp (45) |
| Kalshi Market | 4 | 0.112pp | — | — | 0.112pp (4) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 3 | 0.212pp | — | — | 0.212pp (3) |
| Nowflation Model | 3 | 0.312pp | 39 | 0.094pp | 0.109pp (42) |
Live = for the Nowflation rows, the months whose receipt was locked before the release, graded on the receipt; for the benchmarks, every print they were graded on. Ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.
October 2026 CPI print day, the print-day page for this month · Full scoreboard · CPI forecast · Methodology · Dashboard