The September 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 3.7% year over year on October 14, 2026 (prior 3.4%, Street consensus 3.6%, surprise +0.10pp). Closest on the headline: Kalshi market-implied. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was 3.56% (receipt locked October 13, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET) — a miss of −0.140pp, 4 of 5. Core CPI 2.6% (consensus 2.5%, prior 2.4%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM 0.6% vs 0.6% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 3.56% | 3.7% | −0.140pp |
| Nowflation Model | 3.46% | 3.7% | −0.240pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 3.60% | 3.7% | −0.100pp |
| Street consensus | 3.6% | 3.7% | −0.100pp |
| Kalshi market-implied (closest) | 3.65% | 3.7% | −0.051pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 2.45% | 2.6% | −0.150pp |
| Nowflation Model | 2.25% | 2.6% | −0.348pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 2.39% | 2.6% | −0.210pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.5% | 2.6% | −0.100pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 2.44% | 2.6% | −0.157pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast | 0.57% | 0.6% | −0.032pp |
| Nowflation Model | 0.44% | 0.6% | −0.159pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 0.53% | 0.6% | −0.070pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 0.57% | 0.6% | −0.033pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (closest) | 0.20% | 0.3% | −0.100pp |
| Nowflation Model | 0.12% | 0.3% | −0.183pp |
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.20% | 0.3% | −0.100pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.2% | 0.3% | −0.100pp |
Status locked (immutable), written October 13, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET. standing nowcast / ensemble / benchmark values at lock time (18:30 ET the evening before release). Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.56% (reported 3.6%). SHA-256: 188d2373bd3904c1a301d2a66b469d3af3c460670fa962ba619898a7efdfec3b. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
The Gauge read 3.43% on the eve of the print and 3.50% the day after (+0.070pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.27pp to −0.20pp. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Market-implied mean on October 13, 2026: 3.65%. Ladder strikes at or below 3.7% settled YES; strikes above 3.7% settled NO. The market-implied mean on the eve was 3.65%, -0.05pp from the print. Implied mean = survival-curve integration of the “above X%” ladder mid-prices at the print’s 0.1pp granularity (engine connectors/kalshi.js).
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · September 2026 CPI preview, the preview before the print · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.
Released Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.
3.56% headline CPI YoY for September 2026 (error-weighted ensemble); receipt locked before the release, written October 13, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET (receipt JSON).
| Forecaster | Call | Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Nowflation Model | 3.46% | −0.24pp |
| Cleveland Fed | 3.60% | −0.10pp |
| Street consensus | 3.6% | −0.10pp |
| Kalshi market-implied (closest) | 3.65% | −0.05pp |
September 2026 CPI printed 3.7% YoY on October 14, 2026 (+0.10pp vs consensus). Closest: Kalshi market-implied. Source: BLS first release.
Nowflation 3.56% vs printed 3.7%: miss −0.14pp.
Related: Scoreboard · The forecast · CPI release dates · Release calendar