November 2025 CPI printed 2.7% — every forecaster graded

The November 2025 Consumer Price Index printed 2.7% year over year on December 18, 2025 (prior 3.0%, Street consensus 3.1%, surprise −0.40pp). Closest on the headline: Cleveland Fed. No Nowflation forecast was sealed before this release. Core CPI 2.6% (consensus 3.0%, prior 3.0%; closest Cleveland Fed). Headline MoM 0.1% vs 0.3% expected.

Headline CPI YoY: printed 2.7%

Core CPI YoY: printed 2.6%

Headline CPI MoM: printed 0.1%

Core CPI MoM

no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.

The Gauge stepping

The Gauge read 2.74% on the eve of the print and 2.53% the day after (−0.210pp), its gap to the printed number moving from +0.04pp to −0.17pp. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.

Method

Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.

Scoreboard · November 2025 CPI preview, the preview before the print · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.