The November 2025 Consumer Price Index printed 2.7% year over year on December 18, 2025 (prior 3.0%, Street consensus 3.1%, surprise −0.40pp). Closest on the headline: Cleveland Fed. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 2.6% (consensus 3.0%, prior 3.0%; closest Cleveland Fed). Headline MoM 0.1% vs 0.3% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 3.00% | 2.7% | +0.295pp |
| Street consensus | 3.1% | 2.7% | +0.400pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 2.95% | 2.6% | +0.353pp |
| Street consensus | 3.0% | 2.6% | +0.400pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.32% | 0.1% | +0.222pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.3% | 0.1% | +0.200pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Street consensus | 0.3% | economic calendar |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 2.74% on the eve of the print and 2.53% the day after (−0.210pp), its gap to the printed number moving from +0.04pp to −0.17pp; the CPI Tracker 2.86% → 2.49%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · November 2025 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.