The December 2025 Consumer Price Index printed 2.7% year over year on January 13, 2026 (prior 2.7%, Street consensus 2.7%, surprise 0.00pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 2.6% (consensus 2.7%, prior 2.6%; closest Cleveland Fed). Headline MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 2.57% | 2.7% | −0.127pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.7% | 2.7% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 2.64% | 2.6% | +0.041pp |
| Street consensus | 2.7% | 2.6% | +0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.20% | 0.3% | −0.095pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed (closest) | 0.22% | 0.2% | +0.016pp |
| Street consensus | 0.3% | 0.2% | +0.100pp |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 2.37% on the eve of the print and 2.51% the day after (+0.140pp), its gap to the printed number moving from −0.33pp to −0.19pp; the CPI Tracker 2.33% → 2.45%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · December 2025 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.