Five calls on US inflation on one daily chart from July 2023 to October 18, 2026: the Nowflation CPI Gauge (a measurement of prices now), Truflation (a measurement on its own basket), the Cleveland Fed nowcast, the Street consensus (stepwise, the number for each print) and the Kalshi ladder-implied mean (forecasts of the print), with every official CPI print as a marker at its release date. Every series is read on the eve of each of the 39 releases since June 2023 and scored against the headline YoY as BLS quotes it.
| Series | Kind | Prints | MAE on the eve | Bias | Rolling 6-print MAE | Closest | MAE, same month (the month's average vs its own print) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nowflation CPI Gauge | measurement | 39 | 0.199pp | −0.043pp | 0.216pp | 4 | 0.185pp (38) |
| Truflation | measurement | 39 | 0.927pp | −0.906pp | 1.482pp | 0 | 0.872pp (38) |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | forecast | 39 | 0.092pp | +0.012pp | 0.136pp | 15 | n/a |
| Street consensus | forecast | 39 | 0.085pp | +0.018pp | 0.083pp | 19 | n/a |
| Kalshi market-implied | forecast | 4 | 0.098pp | +0.052pp | 0.098pp | 1 | n/a |
| Previous print (naive) | benchmark | 39 | 0.254pp | ||||
Each series here is read at the close on the eve of each release; the scoreboard grades the value stored for that print, so a market series such as Kalshi can differ from the scoreboard by a few hundredths. The scoreboard is the graded record.
Each series is read on the eve of the release (forward-filled up to seven days for series that skip weekends; the Street consensus is the number posted for that print) and scored against the headline CPI YoY as BLS quotes it (NSA, one decimal). This is the print-eve standard the lead test and the scoreboard use: for the measurements, the Gauge and Truflation on the eve are readings of the month AFTER the one being printed, so this table scores them against a print they are not measuring. It is the test the forecasters face, applied to everyone.
The same-month test, for the measurements only: the calendar-month average of the daily series for the printed month against that print, the like-for-like measurement test. It can only be computed after the month ends, so it is a hindsight comparison, not a forecast.
closest = the series with the smallest absolute error on the eve for that print (ties share it). Rolling MAE = mean absolute error over the last six prints where the series had a reading. The CPI Gauge’s daily history is the engine’s publication-dated series (method v1.4 through the day before 2026-09-28, v1.5 from it, the level linked at the switch), not frozen daily vintages; Truflation is the stream as read today; the Cleveland Fed, Street and Kalshi values are the vintages the engine stored on each day. The pre-registered, hashed forecasts live on the scoreboard and in the receipts.
| CPI month | Released | Nowflation CPI Gauge | Truflation | Cleveland Fed nowcast | Street consensus | Kalshi market-implied | Closest | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 2026 | 2026-10-14 | 3.7% | 3.43% (−0.27pp) | 2.91% (−0.79pp) | 3.60% (−0.10pp) | 3.60% (−0.10pp) | 3.65% (−0.05pp) | Kalshi market-implied |
| August 2026 | 2026-09-11 | 3.4% | 3.25% (−0.15pp) | 2.26% (−1.14pp) | 3.38% (−0.02pp) | 3.40% (0.00pp) | 3.39% (−0.01pp) | Street consensus |
| July 2026 | 2026-08-12 | 3.4% | 3.17% (−0.23pp) | 2.25% (−1.15pp) | 3.42% (+0.02pp) | 3.40% (0.00pp) | 3.37% (−0.03pp) | Street consensus |
| June 2026 | 2026-07-14 | 3.5% | 3.36% (−0.14pp) | 1.93% (−1.57pp) | 3.92% (+0.42pp) | 3.80% (+0.30pp) | 3.80% (+0.30pp) | Nowflation CPI Gauge |
| May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | 4.2% | 3.81% (−0.39pp) | 1.85% (−2.35pp) | 4.18% (−0.02pp) | 4.20% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| April 2026 | 2026-05-12 | 3.8% | 3.92% (+0.12pp) | 1.91% (−1.89pp) | 3.56% (−0.23pp) | 3.70% (−0.10pp) | — | Street consensus |
| March 2026 | 2026-04-10 | 3.3% | 3.63% (+0.33pp) | 1.66% (−1.64pp) | 3.25% (−0.05pp) | 3.30% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| February 2026 | 2026-03-11 | 2.4% | 2.69% (+0.29pp) | 1.04% (−1.36pp) | 2.41% (+0.01pp) | 2.40% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| January 2026 | 2026-02-13 | 2.4% | 2.57% (+0.17pp) | 0.74% (−1.66pp) | 2.36% (−0.04pp) | 2.50% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| December 2025 | 2026-01-13 | 2.7% | 2.37% (−0.33pp) | 1.87% (−0.83pp) | 2.57% (−0.13pp) | 2.70% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| November 2025 | 2025-12-18 | 2.7% | 2.74% (+0.04pp) | 2.60% (−0.10pp) | 3.00% (+0.29pp) | 3.10% (+0.40pp) | — | Nowflation CPI Gauge |
| September 2025 | 2025-10-24 | 3.0% | 2.96% (−0.04pp) | 2.26% (−0.74pp) | 2.99% (−0.01pp) | 3.10% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| August 2025 | 2025-09-11 | 2.9% | 2.88% (−0.02pp) | 2.04% (−0.86pp) | 2.84% (−0.06pp) | 2.90% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| July 2025 | 2025-08-12 | 2.7% | 2.63% (−0.07pp) | 1.78% (−0.92pp) | 2.73% (+0.03pp) | 2.80% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| June 2025 | 2025-07-15 | 2.7% | 2.56% (−0.14pp) | 1.71% (−0.99pp) | 2.64% (−0.06pp) | 2.60% (−0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| May 2025 | 2025-06-11 | 2.4% | 2.44% (+0.04pp) | 1.93% (−0.47pp) | 2.40% (+0.00pp) | 2.50% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| April 2025 | 2025-05-13 | 2.3% | 2.37% (+0.07pp) | 1.57% (−0.73pp) | 2.34% (+0.04pp) | 2.40% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| March 2025 | 2025-04-10 | 2.4% | 2.69% (+0.29pp) | 1.34% (−1.06pp) | 2.49% (+0.09pp) | 2.50% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| February 2025 | 2025-03-12 | 2.8% | 2.83% (+0.03pp) | 1.35% (−1.45pp) | 2.83% (+0.03pp) | 2.90% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| January 2025 | 2025-02-12 | 3.0% | 3.14% (+0.14pp) | 2.11% (−0.89pp) | 2.85% (−0.15pp) | 2.90% (−0.10pp) | — | Street consensus |
| December 2024 | 2025-01-15 | 2.9% | 3.20% (+0.30pp) | 3.04% (+0.14pp) | 2.86% (−0.04pp) | 2.90% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| November 2024 | 2024-12-11 | 2.7% | 2.98% (+0.28pp) | 2.98% (+0.28pp) | 2.70% (+0.00pp) | 2.70% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| October 2024 | 2024-11-13 | 2.6% | 2.79% (+0.19pp) | 2.54% (−0.06pp) | 2.56% (−0.04pp) | 2.60% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| September 2024 | 2024-10-10 | 2.4% | 2.28% (−0.12pp) | 2.19% (−0.21pp) | 2.25% (−0.15pp) | 2.30% (−0.10pp) | — | Street consensus |
| August 2024 | 2024-09-11 | 2.5% | 2.61% (+0.11pp) | 1.81% (−0.69pp) | 2.56% (+0.06pp) | 2.50% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| July 2024 | 2024-08-14 | 2.9% | 2.80% (−0.10pp) | 1.95% (−0.95pp) | 3.01% (+0.11pp) | 3.00% (+0.10pp) | — | Street consensus |
| June 2024 | 2024-07-11 | 3.0% | 3.09% (+0.09pp) | 2.37% (−0.63pp) | 3.13% (+0.13pp) | 3.10% (+0.10pp) | — | Nowflation CPI Gauge |
| May 2024 | 2024-06-12 | 3.3% | 3.07% (−0.23pp) | 2.53% (−0.77pp) | 3.36% (+0.06pp) | 3.40% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| April 2024 | 2024-05-15 | 3.4% | 3.13% (−0.27pp) | 2.90% (−0.50pp) | 3.50% (+0.10pp) | 3.40% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| March 2024 | 2024-04-10 | 3.5% | 2.72% (−0.78pp) | 3.03% (−0.47pp) | 3.42% (−0.09pp) | 3.40% (−0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| February 2024 | 2024-03-12 | 3.2% | 2.71% (−0.49pp) | 2.63% (−0.57pp) | 3.12% (−0.08pp) | 3.10% (−0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| January 2024 | 2024-02-13 | 3.1% | 2.63% (−0.47pp) | 2.17% (−0.93pp) | 2.94% (−0.16pp) | 2.90% (−0.20pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| December 2023 | 2024-01-11 | 3.4% | 3.22% (−0.18pp) | 2.13% (−1.27pp) | 3.32% (−0.08pp) | 3.20% (−0.20pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| November 2023 | 2023-12-12 | 3.1% | 3.25% (+0.15pp) | 2.31% (−0.79pp) | 3.04% (−0.06pp) | 3.10% (0.00pp) | — | Street consensus |
| October 2023 | 2023-11-14 | 3.2% | 3.04% (−0.15pp) | 2.10% (−1.10pp) | 3.28% (+0.08pp) | 3.30% (+0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| September 2023 | 2023-10-12 | 3.7% | 3.62% (−0.08pp) | 2.20% (−1.50pp) | 3.69% (−0.01pp) | 3.60% (−0.10pp) | — | Cleveland Fed nowcast |
| August 2023 | 2023-09-13 | 3.7% | 3.90% (+0.20pp) | 2.74% (−0.96pp) | 3.83% (+0.13pp) | 3.60% (−0.10pp) | — | Street consensus |
| July 2023 | 2023-08-10 | 3.2% | 3.39% (+0.19pp) | 2.53% (−0.67pp) | 3.42% (+0.22pp) | 3.30% (+0.10pp) | — | Street consensus |
| June 2023 | 2023-07-12 | 3.0% | 2.94% (−0.06pp) | 1.90% (−1.10pp) | 3.22% (+0.22pp) | 3.10% (+0.10pp) | — | Nowflation CPI Gauge |
Download Nowflation's daily series: CSV (the other forecasters' readings are shown here under their terms and are not in the file). The pre-registered forecast we are accountable for is graded on the scoreboard; the Truflation reconciliation is on Nowflation vs Truflation; the lead question on the Lead Test; print day, live, on /live.