April 2026 CPI printed 3.8% — every forecaster graded

The April 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 3.8% year over year on May 12, 2026 (prior 3.3%, Street consensus 3.7%, surprise +0.10pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. No Nowflation forecast was sealed before this release. Core CPI 2.8% (consensus 2.7%, prior 2.6%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM 0.6% vs 0.6% expected.

Headline CPI YoY: printed 3.8%

Forecaster	Call	Printed	Miss
Cleveland Fed	3.56%	3.8%	−0.235pp
Street consensus (closest)	3.7%	3.8%	−0.100pp

Core CPI YoY: printed 2.8%

Forecaster	Call	Printed	Miss
Cleveland Fed	2.56%	2.8%	−0.244pp
Street consensus (closest)	2.7%	2.8%	−0.100pp

Headline CPI MoM: printed 0.6%

Forecaster	Call	Printed	Miss
Cleveland Fed	0.45%	0.6%	−0.152pp
Street consensus (closest)	0.6%	0.6%	0.000pp

Core CPI MoM: printed 0.4%

Forecaster	Call	Printed	Miss
Cleveland Fed	0.21%	0.4%	−0.186pp
Street consensus (closest)	0.3%	0.4%	−0.100pp

no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.

The Gauge stepping

The Gauge read 3.92% on the eve of the print and 3.97% the day after (+0.050pp), its gap to the printed number moving from +0.12pp to +0.17pp. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.

Method

Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.

Scoreboard · April 2026 CPI preview, the preview before the print · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.

Countdown

Released Tuesday, May 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Graded below.

What to watch

Prior print: 3.3% YoY (March 2026 CPI).
Street consensus: 3.7% headline, 2.7% core.
The Nowflation call: no call was sealed before this release.

The Nowflation call

No Nowflation call was sealed before this release.

Competing forecasts

Forecaster	Call	Miss
Cleveland Fed	3.56%	−0.24pp
Street consensus (closest)	3.7%	−0.10pp

Grading

April 2026 CPI printed 3.8% YoY on May 12, 2026 (+0.10pp vs consensus). Closest: Street consensus. Source: BLS first release.