The April 2026 Consumer Price Index printed 3.8% year over year on May 12, 2026 (prior 3.3%, Street consensus 3.7%, surprise +0.10pp). Closest on the headline: Street consensus. Nowflation’s sealed forecast was not on the record for this print. Core CPI 2.8% (consensus 2.7%, prior 2.6%; closest Street consensus). Headline MoM 0.6% vs 0.6% expected.
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 3.56% | 3.8% | −0.235pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.7% | 3.8% | −0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 2.56% | 2.8% | −0.244pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.7% | 2.8% | −0.100pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.45% | 0.6% | −0.152pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.000pp |
| Forecaster | Call | Printed | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Fed | 0.21% | 0.4% | −0.186pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.3% | 0.4% | −0.100pp |
no pre-registration receipt for this print (receipts began June 2026) — values are the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time. Receipts on the record.
The Gauge read 3.92% on the eve of the print and 3.97% the day after (+0.050pp), its gap to the printed number moving from +0.12pp to +0.17pp; the CPI Tracker 3.96% → 4.09%. The Gauge is a measurement of today, not a call on the print: on release day the components that hold an official subindex step to the new print while the live components keep moving.
Before the print: every call as it stands on the tape, sealed into the receipt the evening before release (SHA-256 of the receipt JSON with its sha256 field removed). After the print: the scoreboard rows frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. Graded against the BLS first release (YoY on the NSA index, MoM seasonally adjusted, one decimal). Signed error = forecast − actual.
Scoreboard · April 2026 preview · compare the forecasters · print day, live · dashboard.