US inflation today: 1.71% year-over-year (Nowflation Gauge, CPI-comparable, as of 2026-07-05), versus the official BLS CPI of 4.2% (2026-05 print) — a gap of -2.49pp. The Nowflation Cost-of-Living variant (marginal-buyer shelter: price × mortgage rate) reads 1.32%. Cumulatively, prices are up 33.9% since January 2018, our base period.
Today's read: Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.71% YoY as motor fuel drops 2.99% WoW, keeping the gauge 2.49pp below May's official 4.2% CPI. The Nowflation Gauge reads 1.71% YoY, down 0.006pp on the day and 0.407pp on the week (-0.842pp MoM), with cost-of-living inflation at 1.32%. Motor fuel drives the move, down 2.99% WoW and 11.8% MoM though still up 20.01% YoY, contributing -0.47bps daily. Shelter stays split: owned costs up 2.72% YoY versus rent at just 0.69%; used vehicles remain deflationary at -2.04% YoY. The gauge sits 2.49pp under the official May CPI print of 4.2% (prior 3.8%, highest since April 2023; core 2.9%), implying downside risk to the June release, Nowflation Forecast at 4.025% versus 3.9% Street consensus. Pump prices at $3.804 are seen sliding to $3.773 over two weeks, a 3.1-cent decline reinforcing the disinflation read.
| Index | Nowflation YoY | Official YoY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI (daily gauge) | 1.71% | 4.2% (2026-05) | -2.49pp |
| Core CPI (Nowflation Forecast (2026-06 print)) | 2.87% | 2.9% (2026-05) | -0.03pp |
| Supercore (svcs ex-shelter) (daily gauge) | 2.01% | — | — |
| PCE (PCE-weighted gauge) (daily gauge · out-of-pocket scope) | 2.02% | 4.07% (2026-05) | -2.05pp |
| Core PCE (Fed 2% target) (Nowflation Forecast (2026-06 print)) | 3.4% | 3.41% (2026-05) | -0.01pp |
| Component | Our YoY | BLS YoY | CPI weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter: Rent | 0.8% | 2.9% | 7.5% |
| Shelter: Owned | 3.3% | 3.3% | 26.5% |
| Motor Fuel | 41.6% | 41.6% | 3.0% |
| Used Vehicles | -2.0% | -2.0% | 2.1% |
| New Vehicles | 0.2% | 0.2% | 3.6% |
| Food at Home | 2.7% | 2.7% | 8.2% |
| Food Away | 3.5% | 3.5% | 5.7% |
| Electricity | 8.4% | 5.9% | 2.8% |
| Utility Gas | -5.6% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Medical Care | 2.6% | 2.6% | 8.1% |
| Apparel | 4.8% | 4.8% | 2.5% |
| Recreation | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.3% |
| Education & Comm | 0.8% | 0.8% | 5.5% |
| Everything Else | 2.8% | 2.8% | 18.5% |
The Nowflation Gauge is a daily market-price inflation index built from 1066 public series across 25 sources (Zillow and Apartment List rents, AAA pump prices, Manheim used-vehicle auctions, USDA and BLS shelf prices, EIA energy, direct BLS/BEA/Treasury feeds, and FRED), weighted to the CPI basket, base period January 2018 = 100. It ships in two shelter variants: CPI-comparable (rental-equivalence without the BLS survey lag) and Cost-of-Living (house price × current mortgage rate). Historical values are stored vintage-true and never silently revised; methodology changes ship in a dated public changelog. Our CPI Nowflation Forecast is graded publicly after every print alongside the Cleveland Fed, Street consensus, and Kalshi prediction markets. Updated every morning before the US market open; this snapshot published July 5, 2026 at 9:08 PM ET.
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