US inflation today: 2.16% year-over-year (Nowflation Gauge, CPI-comparable, as of 2026-08-22), versus the official BLS CPI of 3.4% (2026-07 print) — a gap of -1.24pp. The Nowflation Cost-of-Living variant (marginal-buyer shelter: price × mortgage rate) reads 2.64%. Cumulatively, prices are up 34.7% since January 2018, our base period.
Today's read: Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.17% YoY, up 0.004pp on the day as Motor Fuel prices climb 0.12%. The Nowflation Gauge stands at 2.17% YoY (DoD +0.004pp, WoW +0.022pp, MoM -0.099pp), cumulative +34.7% since January 2018; cost-of-living tracks hotter at 2.64% YoY. Motor Fuel leads daily drivers, up 0.12% DoD, 0.78% WoW, 1.21% MoM, and 31.25% YoY, contributing 0.37bps to the daily move. Shelter: Rent adds 0.21% MoM (1.26% YoY) while Shelter: Owned holds flat at 2.89% YoY. The gauge sits 1.23pp below the official July CPI print of 3.4% YoY (prior 3.5%, core 2.5%), a gap consistent with the August Nowflation Forecast running at 3.219% versus Street expectations. Fuel forwards point higher: pump at $4.109 versus a two-week forward of $4.209, a 10-cent upside signal.
| Index | Nowflation YoY | Official YoY | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| US CPI (daily gauge) | 2.16% | 3.4% (2026-07) | -1.24pp |
| Core CPI (Nowflation Forecast (2026-08 print)) | 2.34% | 2.5% (2026-07) | -0.16pp |
| Supercore (svcs ex-shelter) (daily gauge) | 2.14% | — | — |
| PCE (PCE-weighted gauge) (daily gauge · out-of-pocket scope) | 2.37% | 3.67% (2026-06) | -1.3pp |
| Core PCE (Fed 2% target) (Nowflation Forecast (2026-07 print)) | 3.26% | 3.29% (2026-06) | -0.03pp |
| Component | Our YoY | BLS YoY | CPI weight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shelter: Rent | 1.2% | 2.9% | 7.5% |
| Shelter: Owned | 3.2% | 3.2% | 26.5% |
| Motor Fuel | 31.2% | 31.2% | 3.0% |
| Used Vehicles | -1.9% | -1.9% | 2.1% |
| New Vehicles | 0.5% | 0.5% | 3.6% |
| Food at Home | 2.6% | 2.6% | 8.2% |
| Food Away | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.7% |
| Electricity | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% |
| Utility Gas | -22.0% | 4.3% | 0.7% |
| Medical Care | 1.7% | 1.7% | 8.1% |
| Apparel | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% |
| Recreation | 2.6% | 2.6% | 5.3% |
| Education & Comm | 0.5% | 0.5% | 5.5% |
| Everything Else | 2.5% | 2.5% | 18.5% |
The Nowflation Gauge is a daily market-price inflation index built from 1435 public series across 28 sources (Zillow and Apartment List rents, AAA pump prices, Manheim used-vehicle auctions, USDA and BLS shelf prices, EIA energy, direct BLS/BEA/Treasury feeds, and FRED), weighted to the CPI basket, base period January 2018 = 100. Fuel reprices daily, new-lease rents monthly (leading the BLS shelter lag), and the remaining categories hold at the latest official print between releases. It ships in two shelter variants: CPI-comparable (rental-equivalence without the BLS survey lag) and Cost-of-Living (house price × current mortgage rate). Historical values are stored vintage-true and never silently revised; methodology changes ship in a dated public changelog. Our CPI Nowflation Forecast is graded publicly after every print alongside the Cleveland Fed, Street consensus, and Kalshi prediction markets. Updated every morning before the US market open; this snapshot published August 22, 2026 at 9:04 AM ET.
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