What real-money markets price for the next Fed decision, inflation prints, recession timing and elections — from Kalshi's regulated exchanges. Prediction markets aggregate dispersed information ruthlessly; they are often the fastest consensus available.
This site treats market odds as a benchmark, never a model input: Kalshi's implied CPI forecast appears on the scoreboard next to ours and gets graded like everyone else. On Fed decisions, the market's meeting-by-meeting odds are the cleanest read of what's priced in.
Markets disagree by 0.0 points: Kalshi prices Fed maintains rate at 86.5%, Polymarket at 86.5%. Kalshi as of 2026-10-18, Polymarket as of 2026-10-18. Fed funds futures are not on the tape: CME futures data has no keyless primary source. Both markets shown are real-money prediction markets already in the data directory.
Prices from two real-money prediction exchanges — Polymarket and Kalshi (regulated by the CFTC) — for the questions this site tracks: the next Fed decision and the year-end policy rate, inflation over/unders, recession and unemployment, and elections. A contract that pays $1 if an event happens trades at the probability the market assigns it, so the percentages are implied probabilities backed by money, not polls. 39 markets in 4 groups are read each morning (snapshot October 18, 2026), and the odds have been archived daily since July 5, 2026 for 24 of them so the history charts — recession odds through time, the meeting-by-meeting Fed path — build as the record grows; nobody else archives this data.
| Group | Market | Leading outcome | Next outcome | Volume | Closes | Exchange |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fed & Rates | How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? | 0 (0 bps) 96.9% | 1 (25 bps) 1.2% | $54.5M | January 1, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Fed & Rates | Fed Decision in October? | No change 86.5% | 25 bps increase 13.5% | $45.2M | October 29, 2026 | Polymarket |
| Fed & Rates | What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026? | 4.25% 66.8% | 4.0% 13.5% | $7.1M | January 1, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Fed & Rates | Fed Decision in December? | 25 bps increase 74.5% | No change 21.5% | $3.9M | December 10, 2026 | Polymarket |
| Fed & Rates | Fed rate cut by...? | July 2027 Meeting 50.0% | June 2027 Meeting 36.0% | $3.8M | January 29, 2028 | Polymarket |
| Inflation & CPI | How high will inflation get in 2026? | Above 4.5% 14.5% | Above 5% 8.0% | $1.5M | February 1, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Inflation & CPI | Brazil Annual Inflation 2026 | 5.00-5.49% 68.2% | 5.50-5.99% 15.5% | $0.2M | January 13, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Inflation & CPI | U.K. Annual Inflation 2026 | 3.5–3.9% 67.9% | 3.0–3.4% 27.0% | $0.1M | January 21, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Inflation & CPI | Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026 | 3.1%+ 89.3% | 2.2–2.4% 3.8% | $0.1M | January 20, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Inflation & CPI | China Annual Inflation 2026 | 0.6 – 1.0% 49.0% | 1.1 – 1.5% 37.5% | $0.1M | January 11, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Recession, GDP & Jobs | US recession by end of 2026? | Yes 6.5% | — | $2.3M | December 31, 2026 | Polymarket |
| Recession, GDP & Jobs | China Annual GDP Growth 2026 | 4.0–5.0% 95.5% | 5.0–6.0% 3.5% | $0.9M | February 1, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Recession, GDP & Jobs | How high will US unemployment go in 2026? | 5.0% 4.9% | 5.5% 2.5% | $0.6M | April 1, 2027 | Polymarket |
| Recession, GDP & Jobs | Will there be a recession in 2027? | Yes 21.0% | — | n/a | January 31, 2028 | Kalshi |
| Recession, GDP & Jobs | Will there be a recession in 2026? | Yes 4.0% | — | n/a | January 31, 2027 | Kalshi |
| Politics & Elections | Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | Gavin Newsom 14.9% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14.8% | $1,294.8M | November 8, 2028 | Polymarket |
| Politics & Elections | Presidential Election Winner 2028 | JD Vance 20.4% | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 13.2% | $717.2M | November 8, 2028 | Polymarket |
| Politics & Elections | Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 | J.D. Vance 47.3% | Marco Rubio 13.2% | $712.7M | November 8, 2028 | Polymarket |
| Politics & Elections | Brazil Presidential Election | Flávio Bolsonaro 80.8% | Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 19.5% | $187M | October 26, 2026 | Polymarket |
| Politics & Elections | Next French Presidential Election | Marine Le Pen 47.9% | Édouard Philippe 19.5% | $152.9M | April 19, 2027 | Polymarket |
A probability is only as good as the money behind it: a market with tens of millions of dollars traded is a serious consensus, one with a few thousand dollars can be moved by a single order, so the volume column is part of the reading. Fed-decision markets are the cleanest use — the outcomes are discrete and resolve in weeks — and they usually agree with the futures-implied path on the Fed Watch page. Inflation and recession markets resolve on published statistics and are thinner. Election markets are the deepest and the least connected to the numbers on this site. For the KXFEDDECISION-26OCT decision the engine's own Kalshi read (used on the dashboard and Fed Watch) shows Fed maintains rate 87%, Hike 25bps 14%.
As a benchmark, never as an input. Kalshi's CPI market implies a headline year-over-year figure that appears on the scoreboard next to the Nowflation Forecast, the Cleveland Fed nowcast and the Street consensus, and is graded exactly like them after every print. The Gauge (3.45%) is a measurement of prices and does not look at any of these markets. Not investment advice; markets can be thin.