Inflation, interest rates, recessions and federal debt across a full century, plus by-president and by-decade tables. The long view is the antidote to headline myopia: double-digit 1970s inflation, the Volcker squeeze, the 2010s lowflation decade and the 2021-22 spike all on one axis.
Every era's "unprecedented" inflation had precedent. The tables slice the same data by presidential term and by decade — useful context, though monetary policy, wars and oil shocks respect no political calendar.
Annual averages of the seven series that define a macro era — CPI inflation, the fed funds rate, the 10-year Treasury yield, the 30-year mortgage rate, unemployment, federal debt to GDP and M2 growth — drawn from the Federal Reserve's archive on one axis, from 1914 to 2025. The long view is the antidote to headline myopia: every era's "unprecedented" inflation had precedent.
| Series | From | Latest annual average | Highest year | Lowest year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI Inflation (annual avg YoY) | 1914 | 2.63% (2025) | 17.8% in 1917 | -10.9% in 1921 |
| Fed Funds Rate | 1954 | 4.21% (2025) | 16.4% in 1981 | 0.08% in 2021 |
| 10-Year Treasury Yield (1925–1961 long-term composite (LTGOVTBD), constant-maturity thereafter) | 1925 | 4.29% (2025) | 13.9% in 1981 | 0.89% in 2020 |
| 30-Year Mortgage Rate | 1971 | 6.48% (2026) | 16.6% in 1981 | 2.96% in 2021 |
| Unemployment Rate | 1948 | 4.3% (2025) | 9.7% in 1982 | 2.9% in 1953 |
| Federal Debt to GDP (total public debt) | 1966 | 120.7% (2025) | 122.3% in 2020 | 30.9% in 1981 |
| M2 Growth (YoY) | 1960 | 3.92% (2025) | 19.1% in 2020 | -3.4% in 2023 |
1910s 10.0% (6 years), 1920s 0.1%, 1930s -2.0%, 1940s 5.6%, 1950s 2.1%, 1960s 2.3%, 1970s 7.1%, 1980s 5.6%, 1990s 3.0%, 2000s 2.6%, 2010s 1.8%, 2020s 3.9% (6 years).
The shape is the story: the two wars and their aftermaths, the 1970s (oil embargoes on top of an economy already running hot, ending in the Volcker squeeze of 1979–82), the great moderation, the 2010s lowflation decade when the fed funds rate sat at zero for seven years, and the 2021–22 spike. Today's Gauge of 3.45% and official CPI of 3.7% sit against that record, not against the last five years.
| President | Party | Term | Years counted | Average inflation | Average unemployment | Debt/GDP change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woodrow Wilson | D | 1913–1921 | 1914–1920 | 10.85% | n/a | n/a |
| Warren Harding | R | 1921–1923 | 1921–1923 | -5.10% | n/a | n/a |
| Calvin Coolidge | R | 1923–1929 | 1924–1928 | 0.14% | n/a | n/a |
| Herbert Hoover | R | 1929–1933 | 1929–1932 | -5.47% | n/a | n/a |
| Franklin D. Roosevelt | D | 1933–1945 | 1933–1944 | 2.22% | n/a | n/a |
| Harry Truman | D | 1945–1953 | 1945–1952 | 5.39% | 4.3% | n/a |
| Dwight Eisenhower | R | 1953–1961 | 1953–1960 | 1.36% | 4.9% | n/a |
| John F. Kennedy | D | 1961–1963 | 1961–1963 | 1.17% | 6.0% | n/a |
| Lyndon B. Johnson | D | 1963–1969 | 1964–1968 | 2.58% | 4.2% | n/a |
| Richard Nixon | R | 1969–1974 | 1969–1974 | 6.02% | 5.1% | -6.0pp (1968 Q4 to 1974 Q2) |
| Gerald Ford | R | 1974–1977 | 1975–1976 | 7.44% | 8.1% | +2.8pp (1974 Q2 to 1976 Q4) |
| Jimmy Carter | D | 1977–1981 | 1977–1980 | 9.73% | 6.6% | -2.6pp (1976 Q4 to 1980 Q4) |
| Ronald Reagan | R | 1981–1989 | 1981–1988 | 4.65% | 7.5% | +18.6pp (1980 Q4 to 1988 Q4) |
| George H.W. Bush | R | 1989–1993 | 1989–1992 | 4.38% | 6.3% | +12.8pp (1988 Q4 to 1992 Q4) |
| Bill Clinton | D | 1993–2001 | 1993–2000 | 2.60% | 5.2% | -8.3pp (1992 Q4 to 2000 Q4) |
| George W. Bush | R | 2001–2009 | 2001–2008 | 2.83% | 5.3% | +19.0pp (2000 Q4 to 2008 Q4) |
| Barack Obama | D | 2009–2017 | 2009–2016 | 1.37% | 7.5% | +31.4pp (2008 Q4 to 2016 Q4) |
| Donald Trump | R | 2017–2021 | 2017–2020 | 1.90% | 5.0% | +21.0pp (2016 Q4 to 2020 Q4) |
| Joe Biden | D | 2021–2025 | 2021–2024 | 4.94% | 4.2% | -4.2pp (2020 Q4 to 2024 Q4) |
| Donald Trump (2nd) | R | 2025–present | 2025 (full years so far) | 2.63% | 4.3% | term in progress |
Each calendar year counts for one president only: the one in office for most of that year, so an inauguration year goes to the incoming president. Debt to GDP from the last quarter completed before the term began to the last quarter completed before it ended. It is left blank for the term in progress. The quarterly debt series starts in 1966. The highest average inflation over a completed term: Woodrow Wilson 10.85%, Jimmy Carter 9.73%, Gerald Ford 7.44%; the lowest: Herbert Hoover -5.47%, Warren Harding -5.10%, Calvin Coolidge 0.14%. Useful context, with the caveat the page states: monetary policy, wars and oil shocks respect no political calendar, and the Fed, not the White House, sets the policy rate.
BLS CPI-U (1913 onward; annual inflation is the change in the annual-average index from the year before, the way BLS computes it; 2025's annual average covers 11 months: no October 2025 CPI was published); Federal Reserve fed funds (1954 onward) and the long-term Treasury composite (1925–1961) spliced with the 10-year constant-maturity yield; Freddie Mac mortgage rates (1971 onward); BLS unemployment (1948 onward; 2025's annual average covers 11 months: no October 2025 unemployment rate was published); total public debt to GDP from the Office of Management and Budget and the St. Louis Fed (quarterly, 1966 onward); Fed M2 (1960 onward). Availability varies by series and the page charts only what is official; nothing is interpolated.