September 2026 CPI: 3.7% — who called it
The September 2026 CPI print landed at 3.7% year over year. Closest call on the headline: Kalshi market-implied. Every forecaster below was on the record before the release. Each is graded against the BLS first print; signed error = forecast minus actual, so a positive number ran hot. These are the values frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them.
Headline CPI YoY: actual 3.7%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 3.56% | -0.140pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 3.46% | -0.240pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 3.60% | -0.100pp |
| Street consensus | 3.60% | -0.100pp |
| Kalshi market-implied (closest) | 3.65% | -0.051pp |
Core CPI YoY: actual 2.6%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 2.45% | -0.150pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 2.25% | -0.348pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 2.39% | -0.210pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.50% | -0.100pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 2.44% | -0.157pp |
Headline CPI MoM: actual 0.6%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 0.57% | -0.032pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 0.44% | -0.159pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 0.53% | -0.070pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.60% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 0.57% | -0.033pp |
Core CPI MoM: actual 0.3%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) (closest) | 0.20% | -0.100pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 0.12% | -0.183pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 0.20% | -0.100pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.20% | -0.100pp |
Pre-registration receipt
Status locked · written October 13, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET · release 2026-10-14 08:30 ET. Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.56% · SHA-256 188d2373bd3904c1…. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
The league table — headline CPI YoY, every graded print
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|
| Street Consensus | 45 | 0.087pp | — | — | 0.087pp (45) |
| Cleveland Fed | 45 | 0.104pp | — | — | 0.104pp (45) |
| Kalshi Market | 4 | 0.112pp | — | — | 0.112pp (4) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 3 | 0.212pp | — | — | 0.212pp (3) |
| Nowflation Model | 3 | 0.312pp | 39 | 0.094pp | 0.109pp (42) |
Live = for the Nowflation rows, the months whose receipt was locked before the release, graded on the receipt; for the benchmarks, every print they were graded on. Ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.
September 2026 CPI print day, the print-day page for this month · Full scoreboard · CPI forecast · Methodology · Dashboard