The BLS releases the September 2026 Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Prior print: 3.4% (2026-08). The Nowflation CPI Forecast is an error-weighted blend of the in-house bottom-up model, the Cleveland Fed nowcast and the Street consensus; Kalshi's market-implied number rides along as a benchmark. This page becomes the graded result the morning the number lands — including our miss, if we miss.
| Forecaster | Headline CPI YoY call |
|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 3.48% |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 3.28% |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 3.43% |
| Street consensus | 3.70% |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.62% |
Status provisional · written September 11, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET · release 2026-10-14 08:30 ET. Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.48% · SHA-256 b671a81c49cb15c1…. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Street Consensus | 44 | 0.086pp | — | — | 0.086pp (44) |
| Cleveland Fed | 44 | 0.104pp | — | — | 0.104pp (44) |
| Kalshi Market | 3 | 0.132pp | — | — | 0.132pp (3) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 3 | 0.159pp | — | — | 0.159pp (3) |
| Nowflation Model | 3 | 0.252pp | 39 | 0.085pp | 0.097pp (42) |
Live = scoreboard rows frozen at grading time, ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.