{
  "print_month": "2026-08",
  "status": "provisional",
  "immutable": false,
  "source": "standing nowcast / ensemble / benchmark values — provisional until the pre-print lock the evening before release",
  "release_datetime_utc": "2026-09-11T12:30:00Z",
  "release_datetime_et": "2026-09-11 08:30 ET",
  "locked_at_utc": "2026-09-01T22:30:00Z",
  "locked_at_et": "September 1, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET",
  "official_forecast": {
    "label": "Nowflation CPI Forecast",
    "target": "cpi_headline_yoy",
    "method": "fmc_ensemble (inverse-error-weighted blend of the in-house bottom-up nowcast, Cleveland Fed, and Street — every rated forecaster weighted by its mean absolute error over a common window of graded prints)",
    "value_precise": 3.333,
    "value_reported_1dp": 3.3
  },
  "headline_yoy_all_forecasters": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 3.333,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 3.285,
    "cleveland_fed": 3.38,
    "kalshi_implied": 3.358,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "core_yoy": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": null,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 2.321,
    "cleveland_fed": 2.38,
    "kalshi_implied": 2.399,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "headline_mom": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": null,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.281,
    "cleveland_fed": 0.36,
    "kalshi_implied": 0.319,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "core_mom": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 0.2,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.138,
    "cleveland_fed": 0.2,
    "kalshi_implied": null,
    "street_consensus": 0.2
  },
  "forecast_asof": {
    "cpi_headline_yoy": {
      "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": "2026-09-01",
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-09-01",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-09-01",
      "kalshi_implied": "2026-09-01"
    },
    "cpi_core_yoy": {
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-09-01",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-09-01",
      "kalshi_implied": "2026-09-01"
    },
    "cpi_headline_mom": {
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-09-01",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-09-01",
      "kalshi_implied": "2026-09-01"
    },
    "cpi_core_mom": {
      "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": "2026-09-01",
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-09-01",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-09-01",
      "street_consensus": "2026-09-11"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "prior_actual": 3.4,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "ensemble_weights_headline": [
    {
      "forecaster": "in_house",
      "value": 3.285,
      "weight": 0.49,
      "mae_basis": "0.096pp over 36 common prints (2023-06 → 2026-07, last 36 of 41; every rated forecaster scored on the same prints)"
    },
    {
      "forecaster": "cleveland_fed",
      "value": 3.38,
      "weight": 0.51,
      "mae_basis": "0.092pp over 36 common prints (2023-06 → 2026-07, last 36 of 41; every rated forecaster scored on the same prints)"
    },
    {
      "forecaster": "kalshi_implied",
      "value": 3.358,
      "weight": 0,
      "mae_basis": "display-only — 2 graded prints, joins the blend at 6"
    }
  ],
  "graded": null,
  "grading_rule": "Graded against the BLS first-release CPI (headline and core YoY = NSA, MoM = SA, one decimal, exactly as the BLS news release reports them). The standing forecast updates daily as data lands; the value on the tape the evening before release is the graded call (vintage-true), consistent with the backtest methodology. Once graded, the scoreboard row is frozen — later revisions by any source never touch it.",
  "audit_trail": "Full daily as-of history for every forecaster is preserved in the engine database and surfaced on /scoreboard and /cpi-preview. This file is the dated record; sha256 is the SHA-256 of this JSON with the sha256 field removed.",
  "sha256": "7c35230a8b091fff5adef4ed1d5d7b1ea15d69ea350fb1ab34a8934fae90aa55"
}