August 2026 CPI: 3.4% — who called it
The August 2026 CPI print landed at 3.4% year over year. Closest call on the headline: Street consensus. Every forecaster below was on the record before the release. Each is graded against the BLS first print; signed error = forecast minus actual, so a positive number ran hot. These are the values frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them.
Headline CPI YoY: actual 3.4%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 3.34% | -0.060pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 3.23% | -0.171pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 3.38% | -0.020pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.40% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.37% | -0.034pp |
Core CPI YoY: actual 2.4%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 2.39% | -0.009pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 2.26% | -0.141pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 2.38% | -0.020pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.40% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 2.37% | -0.028pp |
Headline CPI MoM: actual 0.4%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 0.38% | -0.019pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 0.23% | -0.172pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 0.36% | -0.040pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.40% | 0.000pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 0.37% | -0.034pp |
Core CPI MoM: actual 0.3%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) (closest) | 0.20% | -0.100pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 0.08% | -0.223pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 0.20% | -0.100pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.20% | -0.100pp |
Pre-registration receipt
Status locked · written September 10, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET · release 2026-09-11 08:30 ET. Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.34% · SHA-256 cb56cd01cf2f56eb…. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
The league table — headline CPI YoY, every graded print
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|
| Street Consensus | 45 | 0.087pp | — | — | 0.087pp (45) |
| Cleveland Fed | 45 | 0.104pp | — | — | 0.104pp (45) |
| Kalshi Market | 4 | 0.112pp | — | — | 0.112pp (4) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 3 | 0.212pp | — | — | 0.212pp (3) |
| Nowflation Model | 3 | 0.312pp | 39 | 0.094pp | 0.109pp (42) |
Live = for the Nowflation rows, the months whose receipt was locked before the release, graded on the receipt; for the benchmarks, every print they were graded on. Ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.
August 2026 CPI print day, the print-day page for this month · Full scoreboard · CPI forecast · Methodology · Dashboard