The BLS releases the August 2026 Consumer Price Index on Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Prior print: 3.4% (2026-07). The Nowflation CPI Forecast is an error-weighted blend of the in-house bottom-up model, the Cleveland Fed nowcast and the Street consensus; Kalshi's market-implied number rides along as a benchmark. This page becomes the graded result the morning the number lands — including our miss, if we miss.
| Forecaster | Headline CPI YoY call |
|---|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 3.33% |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 3.29% |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 3.38% |
| Street consensus | not posted yet |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.34% |
Status provisional · written September 1, 2026 at 6:30 PM ET · release 2026-09-11 08:30 ET. Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.33% · SHA-256 7c35230a8b091fff…. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Street Consensus | 43 | 0.088pp | — | — | 0.088pp (43) |
| Cleveland Fed | 43 | 0.106pp | — | — | 0.106pp (43) |
| Kalshi Market | 2 | 0.181pp | — | — | 0.181pp (2) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 2 | 0.208pp | — | — | 0.208pp (2) |
| Nowflation Model | 2 | 0.292pp | 39 | 0.085pp | 0.095pp (41) |
Live = scoreboard rows frozen at grading time, ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.