November 2025 CPI: 2.7% — who called it
The November 2025 CPI print landed at 2.7% year over year. Closest call on the headline: Cleveland Fed nowcast. The benchmarks below were on the record before the release; the Nowflation Model row is its vintage-true walk-forward backtest, computed later from the data as published before the release, not a call on the record. Each is graded against the BLS first print; signed error = forecast minus actual, so a positive number ran hot. These are the values frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them.
Headline CPI YoY: actual 2.7%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 3.00% | +0.295pp |
| Street consensus | 3.10% | +0.400pp |
Core CPI YoY: actual 2.6%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast (closest) | 2.95% | +0.353pp |
| Street consensus | 3.00% | +0.400pp |
Headline CPI MoM: actual 0.1%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 0.32% | +0.222pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.30% | +0.200pp |
The league table — headline CPI YoY, every graded print
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|
| Street Consensus | 45 | 0.087pp | — | — | 0.087pp (45) |
| Cleveland Fed | 45 | 0.104pp | — | — | 0.104pp (45) |
| Kalshi Market | 4 | 0.112pp | — | — | 0.112pp (4) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 3 | 0.212pp | — | — | 0.212pp (3) |
| Nowflation Model | 3 | 0.312pp | 41 | 0.095pp | 0.11pp (44) |
Live = for the Nowflation rows, the months whose receipt was locked before the release, graded on the receipt; for the benchmarks, every print they were graded on. Ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.
November 2025 CPI print day, the print-day page for this month · Full scoreboard · CPI forecast · Methodology · Dashboard