April 2026 CPI: 3.8% — who called it

The April 2026 CPI print landed at 3.8% year over year. Closest call on the headline: Street consensus. The benchmarks below were on the record before the release; the Nowflation Model row is its vintage-true walk-forward backtest, computed later from the data as published before the release, not a call on the record. Each is graded against the BLS first print; signed error = forecast minus actual, so a positive number ran hot. These are the values frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them.

Headline CPI YoY: actual 3.8%

Forecaster	Call	Signed error
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.56%	-0.235pp
Street consensus (closest)	3.70%	-0.100pp

Core CPI YoY: actual 2.8%

Forecaster	Call	Signed error
Cleveland Fed nowcast	2.56%	-0.244pp
Street consensus (closest)	2.70%	-0.100pp

Headline CPI MoM: actual 0.6%

Forecaster	Call	Signed error
Cleveland Fed nowcast	0.45%	-0.152pp
Street consensus (closest)	0.60%	0.000pp

Core CPI MoM: actual 0.4%

Forecaster	Call	Signed error
Cleveland Fed nowcast	0.21%	-0.186pp
Street consensus (closest)	0.30%	-0.100pp

The league table — headline CPI YoY, every graded print

Forecaster	Live prints	Live MAE	Backtest prints	Backtest MAE	Combined MAE
Street Consensus	45	0.087pp	—	—	0.087pp (45)
Cleveland Fed	45	0.104pp	—	—	0.104pp (45)
Kalshi Market	4	0.112pp	—	—	0.112pp (4)
Nowflation Forecast	3	0.212pp	—	—	0.212pp (3)
Nowflation Model	3	0.312pp	41	0.095pp	0.11pp (44)

Live = for the Nowflation rows, the months whose receipt was locked before the release, graded on the receipt; for the benchmarks, every print they were graded on. Ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.

April 2026 CPI print day, the print-day page for this month · Full scoreboard · CPI forecast · Methodology · Dashboard