{
  "print_month": "2026-10",
  "status": "provisional",
  "immutable": false,
  "source": "standing nowcast / ensemble / benchmark values — provisional until the pre-print lock the evening before release",
  "release_datetime_utc": "2026-11-10T13:30:00Z",
  "release_datetime_et": "2026-11-10 08:30 ET",
  "locked_at_utc": "2026-10-18T12:05:00Z",
  "locked_at_et": "October 18, 2026 at 8:05 AM ET",
  "official_forecast": {
    "label": "Nowflation CPI Forecast",
    "target": "cpi_headline_yoy",
    "method": "fmc_ensemble (inverse-error-weighted blend of the in-house bottom-up nowcast, Cleveland Fed, and Street — every rated forecaster weighted by its mean absolute error over a common window of graded prints)",
    "value_precise": 3.859,
    "value_reported_1dp": 3.9
  },
  "headline_yoy_all_forecasters": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": 3.859,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 3.974,
    "cleveland_fed": 3.77,
    "kalshi_implied": null,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "core_yoy": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": null,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 2.76,
    "cleveland_fed": 2.48,
    "kalshi_implied": null,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "headline_mom": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": null,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.281,
    "cleveland_fed": 0.27,
    "kalshi_implied": 0.292,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "core_mom": {
    "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": null,
    "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": 0.235,
    "cleveland_fed": 0.21,
    "kalshi_implied": null,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "forecast_asof": {
    "cpi_headline_yoy": {
      "nowflation_forecast_ensemble": "2026-10-18",
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-10-18",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-10-17"
    },
    "cpi_core_yoy": {
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-10-18",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-10-17"
    },
    "cpi_headline_mom": {
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-10-18",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-10-17",
      "kalshi_implied": "2026-10-18"
    },
    "cpi_core_mom": {
      "nowflation_nowcast_inhouse": "2026-10-18",
      "cleveland_fed": "2026-10-17"
    }
  },
  "context": {
    "prior_actual": 3.7,
    "street_consensus": null
  },
  "ensemble_weights_headline": [
    {
      "forecaster": "in_house",
      "value": 3.974,
      "weight": 0.434,
      "mae_basis": "0.109pp over 36 common prints (2023-08 → 2026-09, last 36 of 43; every rated forecaster scored on the same prints)"
    },
    {
      "forecaster": "cleveland_fed",
      "value": 3.77,
      "weight": 0.566,
      "mae_basis": "0.083pp over 36 common prints (2023-08 → 2026-09, last 36 of 43; every rated forecaster scored on the same prints)"
    }
  ],
  "graded": null,
  "grading_rule": "Graded against the BLS first-release CPI (headline and core YoY = NSA, MoM = SA, one decimal, exactly as the BLS news release reports them). The standing forecast updates daily as data lands; the value on the tape the evening before release is the graded call (vintage-true), consistent with the backtest methodology. Once graded, the scoreboard row is frozen — later revisions by any source never touch it.",
  "audit_trail": "Full daily as-of history for every forecaster is preserved in the engine database and surfaced on /scoreboard and /cpi-preview. This file is the dated record; sha256 is the SHA-256 of this JSON with the sha256 field removed.",
  "sha256": "a0f82d0cc7f73bc3c377cfbfa580badfd14df3708d2976938da3625427a1984d"
}