Economy · Recession and financial conditions

Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities (since 1967)

YearAverageYear close
19670.29%0.02%
19680.14%0.12%
19698.36%44.96%
197044.16%0.00%
19710.18%0.00%
19720.02%0.00%
19733.37%36.74%
197461.10%100.00%
197525.82%0.00%
19760.05%0.00%
19770.20%1.36%
19781.53%0.32%

Source: FRED RECPROUSM156N (Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities). Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Gray bands mark U.S. recessions as dated by the NBER (FRED USREC).

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