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Series SAHMREALTIME — Sahm rule recession indicator.
Latest value: 0.00 pp for September 2026, −0.23 pp from a year earlier (against September 2025). 128 monthly observations from January 2016 to September 2026, in percentage points. Source: FRED (FRED route); context series, not an input to the Nowflation CPI Gauge.
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| September 2026 | 0.00 pp |
| August 2026 | −0.07 pp |
| July 2026 | −0.03 pp |
| June 2026 | 0.07 pp |
| May 2026 | 0.10 pp |
| April 2026 | 0.13 pp |
| March 2026 | 0.20 pp |
| February 2026 | 0.27 pp |
| January 2026 | 0.30 pp |
| December 2025 | 0.35 pp |
| November 2025 | 0.43 pp |
| September 2025 | 0.23 pp |
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Cite: Nowflation, “Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator” (SAHMREALTIME), data from FRED, retrieved October 18, 2026, https://nowflation.com/series/SAHMREALTIME. The series at its source: FRED.
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator (current data) · All Employees, Total Nonfarm (Nonfarm Payrolls, seasonally adjusted) · U-6 underemployment rate · Unemployment Rate (U-3, seasonally adjusted)
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