June 2026 CPI: 3.5% — who called it
The June 2026 CPI print landed at 3.5% year over year. Closest call on the headline: Street consensus. Every forecaster below was on the record before the release. Each is graded against the BLS first print; signed error = forecast minus actual, so a positive number ran hot. These are the values frozen at grading time — later revisions by any source never touch them. The Nowflation Forecast's live call is the receipt locked before the release, 3.935% (a miss of +0.435pp); its row frozen at grading reads 3.895%.
Headline CPI YoY: actual 3.5%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 3.90% | +0.395pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 4.03% | +0.525pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 3.92% | +0.420pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 3.80% | +0.300pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 3.81% | +0.309pp |
Core CPI YoY: actual 2.6%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 2.82% | +0.221pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 2.87% | +0.272pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 2.85% | +0.250pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 2.80% | +0.200pp |
| Kalshi market-implied | 2.82% | +0.216pp |
Headline CPI MoM: actual -0.4%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | -0.08% | +0.318pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 0.03% | +0.433pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | -0.06% | +0.340pp |
| Street consensus | -0.10% | +0.300pp |
| Kalshi market-implied (closest) | -0.12% | +0.276pp |
Core CPI MoM: actual 0.0%
| Forecaster | Call | Signed error |
|---|
| Nowflation Forecast (ensemble) | 0.21% | +0.213pp |
| Nowflation Model (in-house) | 0.24% | +0.240pp |
| Cleveland Fed nowcast | 0.23% | +0.230pp |
| Street consensus (closest) | 0.20% | +0.200pp |
Pre-registration receipt
Status locked · written July 7, 2026 11:18 AM ET · release 2026-07-14 08:30 ET. Nowflation CPI Forecast on the receipt: 3.94%. This receipt predates the hashed receipts: it carries no SHA-256 and no outside archive capture, so its only witness is the site’s own record. Receipt JSON · all receipts.
The league table — headline CPI YoY, every graded print
| Forecaster | Live prints | Live MAE | Backtest prints | Backtest MAE | Combined MAE |
|---|
| Street Consensus | 45 | 0.087pp | — | — | 0.087pp (45) |
| Cleveland Fed | 45 | 0.104pp | — | — | 0.104pp (45) |
| Kalshi Market | 4 | 0.112pp | — | — | 0.112pp (4) |
| Nowflation Forecast | 3 | 0.212pp | — | — | 0.212pp (3) |
| Nowflation Model | 3 | 0.312pp | 41 | 0.095pp | 0.11pp (44) |
Live = for the Nowflation rows, the months whose receipt was locked before the release, graded on the receipt; for the benchmarks, every print they were graded on. Ranked by live MAE. Backtest = the Nowflation Model's vintage-true walk-forward before its first live print (June 2026). Lower MAE = closer calls.
June 2026 CPI print day, the print-day page for this month · Full scoreboard · CPI forecast · Methodology · Dashboard