Nowflation Realtime holds at 3.04% year-on-year as fuel drives the daily move, up 0.21pp on the week.

The Daily Brief · Fuel-led firming. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.37% year over year on 2026-09-21 — +0.001pp on the day, +0.136pp on the week, +0.191pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 3.09% annualized over three months and 6.76% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap −0.03pp, verified against the released print. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.37% YoY, +0.001pp on the day and +0.136pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 3.09% annualized over three months, 6.76% over one.
• Motor Fuel +0.04% on the day (+3.75% on the week, 41.09% YoY) — +0.13bps to the headline.
• Gauge runs −0.03pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 23 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.55% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.50%.

The wire

The Nowflation CPI Gauge stands at 3.37% year-on-year, flat day-over-day (+0.001pp) but up 0.136pp on the week and 0.191pp on the month. Motor Fuel remains the dominant driver, rising 0.04% day-over-day, 3.75% week-over-week, 9.17% month-over-month and 41.09% year-over-year, contributing 0.13bps to the daily move. Shelter: Owned added 0.19% month-over-month (3.08% year-over-year) while Shelter: Rent gained 0.13% week-over-week (2.02% year-over-year). The Gauge sits 0.03pp below the official August print of 3.4% year-on-year, pointing to a softer September release. The Nowflation Forecast for September stands at 3.546%, below the Street consensus of 3.7%; the in-house model reads 3.404%. Retail fuel at $4.478 per gallon, with the two-week forward at $4.557, up 7.9 cents, signals further upside ahead.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 23 days)

Our call sits −0.15pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.03pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.08% YoY; official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.478 (AAA daily, 2026-09-21), +16.2¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.557 in two weeks (+7.9¢).
• Truflation: 2.41% (2026-09-20); the Gauge is +0.96pp against it and Truflation is −0.99pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (11 days): Nowflation model +122K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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