Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.03% YoY as Motor Fuel drags 0.19% on the day, trailing official CPI's 3.5%.

The Daily Brief for July 29, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Gauge trailing CPI. Nowflation Gauge 2.99% year over year on 2026-07-29 — −0.009pp on the day, +0.026pp on the week, +0.014pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.53% annualized over three months and 2.20% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.51pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge stands at 2.03% YoY, down 0.007pp on the day, up 0.026pp on the week, and up 0.055pp on the month; cumulative gains since January 2018 reach 34.2%. Cost-of-living inflation reads 1.94% YoY. Motor Fuel remains the largest single driver, down 0.19% on the day, up 0.76% on the week, up 6.59% on the month, and up 30.76% YoY, contributing -0.58bps to the daily move. Shelter: Owned holds at 2.97% YoY, Shelter: Rent at 0.96% YoY. The gauge sits 1.47pp below the official June 2026 CPI print of 3.5% YoY (prior 4.2%), core at 2.6% (prior 2.9%). July's Nowflation Forecast points to a 3.453% print, still above the gauge's real-time read. Fuel's two-week forward at $4.26 versus $4.091 pump signals a 16.9-cent rise ahead.

As written on 2026-07-29, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

ForecasterHeadline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)3.43%
Nowflation model (in-house)3.45%
Street consensus3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast3.42%
Kalshi market-implied3.39%
Prior print3.5%

Our call sits +0.03pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.51pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.03pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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