Nowflation Realtime holds at 3.04% y/y on Sep 20, flat day-over-day, as fuel adds 0.001pp amid a 0.21pp weekly rise.

The Daily Brief · Fuel-driven, steady pressure. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.37% year over year on 2026-09-20 — +0.001pp on the day, +0.138pp on the week, +0.184pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 3.08% annualized over three months and 6.79% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap −0.03pp, verified against the released print. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.37% YoY, +0.001pp on the day and +0.138pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 3.08% annualized over three months, 6.79% over one.
• Motor Fuel +0.02% on the day (+3.78% on the week, 41.03% YoY) — +0.06bps to the headline.
• Gauge runs −0.03pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 24 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.53% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.50%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime stands at 3.04% y/y on 2026-09-20, unchanged day-over-day (0 pp) but up 0.21pp week-over-week. Fuel contributed 0.001pp to the day's move, with pump-level fuel prices up 41.03% y/y. The Nowflation CPI Gauge reads 3.37% y/y, up 0.001pp day-over-day, 0.138pp week-over-week, and 0.184pp month-over-month, cumulatively 36.7% since January 2018. Top CPI Gauge drivers: Motor Fuel up 8.93% m/m and 41.03% y/y, contributing 0.06 bps daily; Shelter: Owned up 0.19% m/m, 3.08% y/y; Shelter: Rent up 0.13% m/m, 2.02% y/y. The Gauge sits -0.03pp versus the official August 3.4% y/y CPI print (core 2.4%). For September, the Nowflation Forecast stands at 3.528%, below Street's 3.7% consensus. Fuel's two-week-forward price of $4.555 versus $4.476 spot points to a 7.9-cent increase ahead.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 24 days)

Our call sits −0.17pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.03pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.08% YoY; official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.476 (AAA daily, 2026-09-20), +16.3¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.555 in two weeks (+7.9¢).
• Truflation: 2.43% (2026-09-19); the Gauge is +0.95pp against it and Truflation is −0.97pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (12 days): Nowflation model +122K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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