Nowflation Gauge eases to 2.89% YoY as Motor Fuel drives daily softening.

The Daily Brief for September 2, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-driven softening. Nowflation Gauge 2.94% year over year on 2026-09-02 — −0.005pp on the day, −0.011pp on the week, −0.057pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.45% annualized over three months and 3.25% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.46pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.94% YoY, −0.005pp on the day and −0.011pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 1.45% annualized over three months, 3.25% over one.
Motor Fuel +0.61% on the day (+0.46% on the week, 29.45% YoY) — +1.83bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.46pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 9 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.33% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.38%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.89% YoY, down 0.005pp on the day and 0.01pp on the week, with the monthly trend softer at -0.066pp. Motor Fuel remains the dominant driver, up 0.61% on the day and 29.45% YoY, contributing 1.83bps to the daily move. Shelter: Owned adds 0.26% MoM (3.23% YoY), while Shelter: Rent rises 0.16% MoM (1.68% YoY). The gauge sits 0.51pp below the official July CPI print of 3.4%, pointing to a softer August read; the Nowflation Forecast pegs the August print at 3.285%, just under the prior month's official pace. Pump prices at $4.12 point to $4.089 in two weeks, a 3.1-cent pullback.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 9 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.33%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.29%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.38%
Kalshi market-implied	3.34%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.07pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.46pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.16% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.120 (AAA daily, 2026-09-02), +1.9¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.081 in two weeks (−3.9¢).
Truflation: 2.28% (2026-09-02); the Gauge is +0.65pp against it and Truflation is −1.12pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: August 2026 payrolls land September 4, 2026 (2 days): Nowflation model +73K vs Street +56K; printed +162K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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