Nowflation Realtime holds at 3% YoY, up 0.13pp on the day as fuel adds 0.095pp to the move.

The Daily Brief · Fuel-led uptick. Nowflation CPI Gauge 3.34% year over year on 2026-09-17 — +0.084pp on the day, +0.089pp on the week, +0.182pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 2.95% annualized over three months and 6.81% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (August 2026, released 2026-09-11); gap −0.06pp, verified against the released print. About 44% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

• Gauge 3.34% YoY, +0.084pp on the day and +0.089pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 2.95% annualized over three months, 6.81% over one.
• Motor Fuel +1.63% on the day (+3.76% on the week, 39.83% YoY) — +4.71bps to the headline.
• Gauge runs −0.06pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4%; September 2026 CPI lands in 27 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.52% vs Street 3.7%, Cleveland Fed 3.50%.

The wire

Nowflation Realtime prints 3% YoY, up 0.13pp on the day and 0.18pp on the week. Fuel contributes 0.095pp to the daily move, with pump prices up 39.83% YoY; shelter owned adds 0.033pp (YoY 0.93%) and shelter rent 0.01pp (YoY 0.93%). The Nowflation CPI Gauge stands at 3.34% YoY, up 0.084pp DoD and 0.089pp WoW, running -0.06pp versus the official 2026-08 CPI print of 3.4% YoY. The Nowflation Forecast for the 2026-09 release sits at 3.519%, below Street consensus at 3.7%; the in-house model reads 3.321%. Fuel forwards signal further upside, with pump prices seen rising to $4.517 from $4.438, a 7.9 cent increase over two weeks.

The print ahead — September 2026 CPI, Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 27 days)

Our call sits −0.18pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.06pp versus the August 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (September 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

• Shelter: all-tenant rent index 2.02% YoY (+0.17% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.08% YoY; official rent 2.75% and owners' equivalent rent 3.08% (2026-08, BLS).
• Fuel: pump price $4.438 (AAA daily, 2026-09-17), +16.1¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.517 in two weeks (+7.9¢).
• Truflation: 2.44% (2026-09-16); the Gauge is +0.90pp against it and Truflation is −0.96pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
• Jobs: September 2026 payrolls land October 2, 2026 (15 days): Nowflation model +102K vs Street +120K.

Method

The Nowflation CPI Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 7:55 AM & 6 PM ET · published 8:05 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard