Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.83% YoY, edging up 0.02pp as motor fuel drives the day's move.

The Daily Brief for August 11, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-driven stability. Nowflation Gauge 2.88% year over year on 2026-08-11 — +0.002pp on the day, −0.106pp on the week, −0.125pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.54% annualized over three months and 2.22% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.62pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.88% YoY, +0.002pp on the day and −0.106pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.54% annualized over three months, 2.22% over one.
Motor Fuel +0.05% on the day (−1.91% on the week, 27.51% YoY) — +0.15bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.62pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5%; July 2026 CPI lands in 1 day — Nowflation Forecast 3.42% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.42%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge stands at 1.83% YoY, up 0.022pp on the day but down 0.05pp on the week and 0.1pp on the month, tracking 34.3% cumulative inflation since January 2018. Motor Fuel remains the top mover, rising 0.05% DoD and 3.48% MoM despite a 1.91% weekly pullback, still up 28.41% YoY and contributing 0.15bps to the daily print. Shelter: Owned adds 2.62% YoY while Used Vehicles subtract 3.06% YoY. The gauge sits 1.67pp below the official June CPI print of 3.5%, consistent with July's headline seen at 3.46% by Nowflation Forecast models, just above the 3.4% Street consensus. The two-week fuel forward at $3.782 versus today's $4.011 pump price, a 22.9-cent drop, points to further disinflationary pressure ahead.

As written on 2026-08-11, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.42%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.46%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.42%
Kalshi market-implied	3.37%
Prior print	3.5%

Our call sits +0.02pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.62pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.02pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.15% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.25% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.011 (AAA daily, 2026-08-11), −7.8¢ on the week; RBOB implies $3.779 in two weeks (−23.2¢).
Truflation: 2.25% (2026-08-11); the Gauge is +0.63pp against it and Truflation is −1.25pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: August 2026 payrolls land September 4, 2026 (24 days): Nowflation model +100K vs Street +56K; printed +162K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

Archive — one brief per day

Dashboard · Today's brief · CPI forecast · Scoreboard