Nowflation Gauge holds at 2.15% YoY, up 0.018pp on the day as motor fuel leads gains.

The Daily Brief for August 19, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-driven firming. Nowflation Gauge 2.95% year over year on 2026-08-19 — +0.013pp on the day, +0.036pp on the week, +0.052pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.36% annualized over three months and 3.43% over one. Official CPI 3.4% (July 2026, released 2026-08-12); gap −0.45pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.95% YoY, +0.013pp on the day and +0.036pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 0.36% annualized over three months, 3.43% over one.
Motor Fuel +0.52% on the day (+1.24% on the week, 30.51% YoY) — +1.55bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.45pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4%; August 2026 CPI lands in 23 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.30% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.36%.

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge stands at 2.15% YoY as of Aug 19, up 0.018pp on the day and 0.038pp on the week, though down 0.06pp on the month. Motor Fuel is the standout driver, up 0.52% DoD, 1.24% WoW and 2.07% MoM, running 30.51% YoY and adding 1.55bps to the daily print. Shelter: Rent (+0.21% MoM, 1.26% YoY) and Shelter: Owned (2.89% YoY) trail. The gauge sits 1.25pp below the official July CPI print of 3.4% YoY (core 2.5%), pointing to downside risk for the August 3.216% Nowflation Forecast versus street expectations. Fuel forwards firm, with pump prices at $4.086 seen rising to $4.116 in two weeks, up 3 cents.

As written on 2026-08-19, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — August 2026 CPI, Friday, September 11, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (in 23 days)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.30%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.22%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.36%
Kalshi market-implied	3.39%
Prior print	3.4%

Our call sits −0.10pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.45pp versus the July 2026 print of 3.4% that this release replaces. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (August 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.16% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.23% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.086 (AAA daily, 2026-08-19), +5.0¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.155 in two weeks (+6.9¢).
Truflation: 2.33% (2026-08-19); the Gauge is +0.62pp against it and Truflation is −1.07pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: August 2026 payrolls land September 4, 2026 (16 days): Nowflation model +77K vs Street +56K; printed +162K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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