Nowflation Gauge sits at 1.91% YoY, softer by 0.004pp on the day as Motor Fuel drag dominates.

The Daily Brief for August 2, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 2.99% year over year on 2026-08-02 — −0.004pp on the day, −0.014pp on the week, +0.063pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 1.94% annualized over three months and 3.99% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.51pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

Gauge 2.99% YoY, −0.004pp on the day and −0.014pp on the week; seasonally adjusted pace 1.94% annualized over three months, 3.99% over one.
Motor Fuel −0.12% on the day (−0.34% on the week, 30.92% YoY) — −0.37bps to the headline.
Gauge runs −0.51pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5%; July 2026 CPI lands in 10 days — Nowflation Forecast 3.42% vs Street 3.4%, Cleveland Fed 3.42%.

The wire

The Gauge printed 1.91% YoY, down 0.004pp on the day and 0.243pp on the week, though up 0.056pp on the month. Motor Fuel remains the swing factor: -0.12% daily, -0.34% weekly, but +7.14% monthly and +30.92% YoY, shaving 0.37bps off the daily print. Shelter: Owned holds at 2.62% YoY versus Rent at 0.92%, while Used Vehicles stays deflationary at -3.06% YoY. The Gauge runs 1.59pp below the official June print of 3.5% YoY, consistent with the Nowflation's July Nowflation Forecast of 3.46%, just above the Street's 3.4% consensus. Pump prices at $4.096 with a $4.124 two-week forward, a 2.8-cent build, point to fresh upward pressure on the fuel component ahead.

As written on 2026-08-02, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

Forecaster	Headline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)	3.42%
Nowflation model (in-house)	3.46%
Street consensus	3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast	3.42%
Kalshi market-implied	3.39%
Prior print	3.5%

Our call sits +0.02pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.51pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.02pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Shelter: all-tenant rent index 1.68% YoY (+0.15% month over month), the reading the Gauge uses as measured; owned shelter 3.25% YoY; official rent 2.86% and owners' equivalent rent 3.23% (2026-07, BLS).
Fuel: pump price $4.096 (AAA daily, 2026-08-02), −1.4¢ on the week; RBOB implies $4.124 in two weeks (+2.8¢).
Truflation: 2.27% (2026-08-02); the Gauge is +0.72pp against it and Truflation is −1.23pp against the official print — a different construction, reconciled on the Nowflation vs Truflation page.
Jobs: July 2026 payrolls land August 7, 2026 (5 days): Nowflation model +198K vs Street +80K; printed −23K.

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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