Nowflation Gauge holds at 1.86% YoY as motor fuel drops 0.42% DoD, pulling the index down 0.016pp on the day.

The Daily Brief for August 6, 2026, as the data stood that morning · Fuel-led disinflation. Nowflation Gauge 2.95% year over year on 2026-08-06 — −0.015pp on the day, −0.048pp on the week, +0.047pp on the month; seasonally adjusted pace 0.70% annualized over three months and 4.07% over one. Official CPI 3.5% (June 2026, released 2026-07-14); gap −0.55pp. About 43% of the basket is priced from live sources; the rest holds the latest BLS subindex as measured.

What moved

The wire

The Nowflation Gauge printed 1.86% YoY, down 0.016pp on the day and 0.276pp on the week, with month-on-month roughly flat at +0.004pp. Motor Fuel drove the move, falling 0.42% DoD and 0.85% WoW despite a 7.2% MoM and 29.16% YoY gain, shaving 1.25bps off the daily print. Shelter categories stayed inert: Rent at 0.92% YoY, Owned at 2.62% YoY, while Used Vehicles remained deflationary at -3.06% YoY. The gauge sits 1.64pp below the official June CPI print of 3.5% YoY (prior 4.2%, core 2.6%), a gap that argues for a softer July release than the Street's 3.4% consensus, though the Nowflation model runs slightly hotter at 3.46%. Forward pump prices point to further relief, down 32 cents to $3.743 over two weeks from $4.063 currently.

As written on 2026-08-06, under the gauge construction in force that day; the readings above reflect the current construction (v1.3, since September 2, 2026), so the levels differ.

The print ahead — July 2026 CPI, Wednesday, August 12, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET (printed 3.4%)

ForecasterHeadline CPI YoY call
Nowflation Forecast (pre-registered ensemble)3.42%
Nowflation model (in-house)3.46%
Street consensus3.4%
Cleveland Fed nowcast3.42%
Kalshi market-implied3.37%
Prior print3.5%

Our call sits +0.02pp versus the Street; the Gauge runs −0.55pp versus the June 2026 print of 3.5% that this release replaces. Graded: the call missed by +0.02pp. The forecast is a separate product from the Gauge — the Gauge measures today's prices; the forecast is the pre-registered call for what the BLS will print, graded after every release (July 2026 preview and grading).

Shelter, fuel, Truflation, jobs

Method

The Nowflation Gauge is a measurement of today’s prices — live market sources for the components that have them (all-tenant rents measured from this month’s new leases, pump prices, used-vehicle auctions) and the latest BLS subindex, held as measured, for the rest. It is never a forecast. The print-day call is a separate product: the Nowflation Forecast is the pre-registered ensemble for the next CPI release (locked the evening before, graded after); the in-house model is shown alongside it. The wire paragraph is written by Claude from the day’s engine figures only (model alias in each record; a deterministic template when the API is unavailable). The “what moved” bullets are computed, not written. recomputed 8:40 AM & 6 PM ET · published 9 AM ET · 8:45 AM ET on print days. Methodology · every input, exposed · calendar feed, RSS and email.

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